When Turkey and Armenia announced “Armenia opening” in Geneva for the first time, there was a belief that thetwo countries will normalize their relations and open the borders.

International community considers this as the begining of the process of normalization between Turkey and Armenia and applauded the change in Turkey’s policy against Armenia.

That was really an important event but it was obvious that the process will be very long and difficult.

Following the announcement in Geneva, the protocols that Turkish and Armenian Foreign Ministers signed in Switzerland became the second step of the process. Protocols have drawn the roadmap and a schedule for the process.

On the other hand, the schedule is planned for the date after protocols are ratified in the parliaments of two countries. This is the point where the process stucks.

Armenia has not presented the protocols to the parliament yet. Because, according to Armenian laws such agreements should be approved by Constitutional Court before their presentation to the parliament. Armenian Parliament will be able to vote protocols following the approval of Constitutional Court.

And in Turkey, Board of Ministers discussed Turkey-Armenia protocols last month and decided not to present protocols to Turkish Grand National Assembly. Turkey is waiting for certain political conditions to emerge before making such step.

This process of waiting may take plenty of time. Because Turkish government establishes a connection between the ratification of protocols and the process of resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Prime Minister and other officials clearly stated that protocols will not take effect without progress in Karabakh conflict resettlement. Therefore, government is not inclined to carry protocols on the agenda of Turkish Parliament unless it makes sure that there is significant progress in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict which willsatisfy Azerbaijan.

Since the process is connected to the process of resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, we should see the developments in that field.

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group recently accelerated its efforts towards resolution of the conflict. Besides, Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents have intensified frequency of their meetings. This month, Aliyev and Sarksyan held their 6th meeting.

But it is not logical to consider that Nagorno-Karabakh problem could be solved in short term. In fact, Turkish officials’ expectation is for Armenia to agree withdrawal from seven surrounding regions around Nagorno-Karabakh.

If we witness such development soon, the process of Turkey-Armenia normalization will revitalize. And in such case, it is very probable that Turkish Grand National Assembly will ratify protocols. But the Minsk process and Aliyev-Sarksyan dialogue progress so slowly. Therefore, one should not expect an activation in the process of normalization.

But the acceleration that is gained by the protocols and ’the opening’ should not be lost. That is possible by continuation of the contact in different levels and different fields.

Sami Kohen/Milliyet