As Turkey’s ’Armenia opening’ and the protocols signed by Turkish and Armenian Foreign Ministers in Zurich are still being discussed, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan met in Munich for the eighth time. The conflict started with the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan by Armenian forces in 1988. Azerbaijan and Armenia made a ceasefire agreement in 1994 although parties could not agree on a final agreement on the dispute. Azerbaijani leader Haydar Aliyev and Armenian leader Robert Kocharian could not achieve results in the meetings they held in the different cities of World. The leaders of two countries have changed, but the results of meetings did not.

Negotiations towards resolution of the Karabakh problem had started again following the election of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan. Two leaders met eight times until now, and it could not be told that they haveachieved significant progress. The last meeting of presidents of two Caucasus countries was held on December 22 in Munich, Germany. The meeting washeld in the building of French Consulate General, in the mediation of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group. The initiatives of OSCE Minsk Group aim to achieve an agreement on certain principles and they have postponed the issue of determination of final status of Nagorno-Karabakh region.

When we consider the recent threatening statements of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, it is obvious that Azerbaijan seeks for a rapid solution of the problem. The statements of French co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group about possibility of war in the region could be considered as a warning for Armenia.

Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders discussed withdrawal of Armenian forces from five of seven regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, determination of the status of temporary administration and security in the region, the structure of the land corridor that will connect Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, status of Nagorno-Karabakh, return of refugees to their homeland and settlement of international forces. Aliyev and Sarksyan discussed these issues in their previous meetings too but they could not achieve any progress. Now let’s assume that leaders come to an agreement on withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from five of seven regions, and determination of status of Nagorno-Karabakh by a referendum. Would these change the previous situation? Aliyev and Sarkyan had came on such agreements before too but those never took effect.

In fact, resolution of the conflict does not seem very probable as the conflict of interest between Russia and United States on Caucasus continues. Therefore, we should not be very optimistic about resolution of this problemwhile United States, Russia and France keep their chairs in OSCE.

Azerbaijan will not take the risk of war easily after the conflict between Russia and Georgia in the August of 2008. Furthermore, Azerbaijan should hold negotiations with Russia instead of Armenia. Because occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh was initiated not by Armenian military but Russian armed forces. When we consider that Russia goes on selling arms to Armenia, one can get more convinced on the option of holding negotiations with Russia instead of Armenia.

As we stressed before, the resolution of the problem will not be easy as the interests of Russia on the situation continues.

Elshen Resulov/Basakgazetesi