‘Eurasian Membership Not To Bring Dividends In Karabakh Settlement To Armenia’
Interview with member of the working group on Azerbaijan-Russia interparliamentary relations, deputy of Milli Majlis Fazil Mustafa.
Q: During his soonest visit to Moscow, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan plans to discuss his country’s membership in the Eurasian Union with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. What are the prospects of Armenia’s membership in case it joins this union?
A: The project on creation of the Eurasian Union is the product of Russia’s political ambitions. However, there are no prospects for this union to grow into a strong and influential bloc. The idea of the Eurasian Union pursues the aim of creating visibility of confrontation with the West. Nonetheless, Russia intends to implement this idea through dictating its will in relation to neighbor states. Anyway, this is an unpromising idea since membership of any country, including Armenia, in the Eurasian Union, will be of forced, partly obliged nature. I believe that the membership in the Eurasian Union won’t give either economic welfare or political dividends to these countries. In addition, the membership in the Eurasian Union won’t mean that these countries will not be able to get rid of the Russian influence in the future.
Q: What can be the geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus if Armenia joins the Eurasian Union?
A: Naturally, no changes will occur. Because, even if Armenia does not join this union, it will continue getting support from Russia, United States and Europe. The matter is that Armenia is among the countries which has a Russian military base in its territory. Despite this, the United States continues support to Armenia. This means that superpowers do not take into account Armenia’s membership in any bloc. As a country, Armenia is created in this geographical space to hamper the unification of the Turkic, Muslim world. That is Armenia is a model of hindrance, created by Russia, United States, Europe and Iran against Turkey. Therefore, even if Armenia does not join the Eurasian Union, Russia will continue extensive support to it. Armenia will also continue getting the same support from the United States, Europe and Iran.
Q: Can Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Union give it the political dividends?
A: The processes around Syria have demonstrated that Russia can provide every assistance even to the countries that are far from its borders. As is known, Bashar Asad’s government still retains power owing to Russia’s support. However, the assistance that Syria gets from Russia is unpromising. Nonetheless, this assistance has retained Bashar Asad at power. In other words, Russia’s possible support can promote only short-term goals. In this view, it should be noted that the membership of Armenia or any other country in the Eurasian Union won’t have any significant impact on processes in the region.
Q: Russian politicians repeatedly invited Azerbaijan to join the Eurasian Union. Will this invitation be actual for Azerbaijan in case Armenia joins the Eurasian Union?
A: Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Union won’t actualize this issue for Azerbaijan. After all, Armenia is anyway the member of the CSTO and in this view it maintains close ties with Russia. Armenia does not even need to join the Eurasian Union for closer ties with Russia.
Meanwhile, official Baku may view the issue of membership in the Eurasian Union in case Russia puts an end to occupation of Azerbaijani lands. Otherwise, Azerbaijan won’t demonstrate any interest in close cooperation with Russia without an extreme need.
Q: How will Armenia’s accession in Eurasian Union influence the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
A: Armenia’s accession in Eurasian Union won’t have any impact on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, since if the resolution of the Karabakh conflict depended solely on Russia, it would have taken different variants in this view. I have to note that the United States and other countries also have their interests in Karabakh conflict. Therefore, these countries won’t allow the resolution of the conflict without their participation and Russia is obliged to take this into account. Therefore, Armenia’s membership in unions created by the Russian side won’t give it any dividends in Karabakh settlement.
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