Below is an interview Alexander Rahr, a European energy and CIS expert, gave 1news.az.
- Azerbaijan and Armenia failed to reach a common ground on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. What does the future hold?
- It is most difficult to say. Let us hope that one of the great powers – Russia or the United States – or, may be, the European Union will seriously act as mediator. The OSCE Minsk Group is not the format to resolve the problem. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict cannot be resolved now – except if status quo is maintained. Armenia and Azerbaijan are holding diametrically opposite positions, and a compromise is very difficult to reach.
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev attempted to act as mediator. I think he failed. Russia has taken a pause. I cannot say if President Dmitri Medvedev will be able to undertake one more initiative at the end of his presidency.
As to the United States, it has no time for the South Caucasus now. The West and the European Union are now dealing with conflicts in North Africa, Libya and Syria. That is the reason why the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has remained frozen for 20 years.
- In this case, what format could replace the OSCE Minsk Group?
- I do not know. I just think that it is one of the conflicts that are impossible to resolve. Armenians are not going to give Nagorno-Karabakh back, whereas Azerbaijan will never agree on any compromise unless its demand for return of Nagorno-Karabakh is satisfied. Either side has its own arguments.
Each of the sates has external support. It is a complete stalemate. I do not see an end to it because the sides are holding diametrically opposite positions.
- Still, how can progress in the peace process be ensured?
- Armenian-Azerbaijani diplomatic relations are "locked up" now. So it is difficult to say that any progress might facilitate the return of some of Azerbaijani refugees to Nagorno-Karabakh or joint investments in the area. It is a "never-to-be-settled case."
I think it can only be settled by the next generation – they will not have any memories of the tragic events that occurred 20 years ago.
It is one of the conflicts the West has no way of influencing. Azerbaijan refers to the principle of territorial integrity, whereas Armenians refer to that of people's right to self-determination.
There has developed a most serious situation. And the West has no idea of what can be done. Let us hope it does not come to hostilities. No one wants it.
I too think that Azerbaijan is most difficult – even impossible – to persuade into recognizing the status quo for the next two decades.
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