Interview with Nikolay Silayev, senior researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations' Caucasus Research Centre.
Q: Abkhazia and South Ossetia are celebrating the anniverary of their independence from Georgia. How did the August 2008 Russo-Georgian war change the overall situation in the South Caucasus?
A: The consequences of the war are very diverse, so it is hard to depict them in a short interview. First and foremost, the war demonstrated the real and very expensive cost of attempts to solve long-standing ethnic and political conflicts by force. Russia’s recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was an indirect outcome of the war which served as a precedent for the entire post-Soviet area. Relations between Russia, the US and NATO acquired a new context following the war.
Q: Do you believe the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, recognized by Russia, is irreversible or does Tbilisi still have a chance of recovering control over these territories?
A: Of course, “never say never”, but true independence is irreversible. It is possible that in the distant future some integrated structures may be formed linking Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The voluntary concession on their part of sovereignty in favour of Georgia is theoretically possible in the future. But now discussion of these issues is far from practical politics. I would not consider the return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Tbilisi’s jurisdiction a realistic scenario.
Some new agreements on their status are possible only if a brand new security system is formed throughout the region and fundamental political advances in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are made.
Q: Russia says it is ready to normalize ties with Georgia only after President Mikheil Saakashvili leaves office. Can Russia eliminate the distrust and even antagonism that the Georgian people have towards it?
A: I have not noticed any antagonism of the Georgian people towards Russia and the Russian people, or antagonism of the Russian people towards Georgia and the Georgian people.
Mutually hostile government propaganda in both countries at one time produced an effect, but this effect was the result of the situation. The anti-Georgian wave in Russia in the fall of 2006 quickly came to naught. And the people of Georgia turned out to be immune to Russophobic propaganda. Mistrust can be eliminated if you prove good faith and keep promises.
Q: What message did the Russo-Georgian war send to Azerbaijan and Armenia which do not rule out the possibility of a military solution to their territorial dispute?
A: The war showed that there is no military solution and there will not be one.
Q: Is it possible to predict what steps Russia will take if Azerbaijan does decide to liberate its lands by force?
A: Russia will make every effort to prevent an outbreak of hostilities, escalation of violence as an intermediary and to return the parties to the negotiating table together with other responsible parties in international politics.
F.H.
News.Az
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