Interview with Nuri Gokhan Toprak, research worker of the Istanbul University, political scientist.
Q: Israeli FM Avigdor Lieberman has recently said that his country is preparing a number of response steps against Turkey among which he cited the recognition of ‘Armenian genocide’ and support to PKK terror organization. What implications can such actions have for Israel?
A: Israel's preparations for the return steps, according to publications in Turkish press in early September, show that in the light of expanding the coverage of international issues on the part of Turkish foreign policy, Lieberman has missed at least 5-6 options for overcoming the crisis. These developments rather show the revanchism in the face of Lieberman, who tried to oppose the Turkey’s intention to expand the areal of foreign policy influence and is a bright example of mercantilism and chauvinism, obviously traced in the approaches of the politicians in the first decades after the end of the Cold War, than about deviations in development of the Turkish-Israeli relations.
This time, the statement about ‘revenge’ voiced by Lieberman is not the first case, facing the public opinion of Turkey. The threat to support ‘Armenian genocide’ and PKK is the point, so much sought for use by all countries up to Alaska, whose interests contradict to the interests of Turkey. Over the past decade such threats have become rather a loathsome ‘pie’ for the government of Turkey and millions of people supporting it. So many efforts have been spent to cook this ‘pie’ which was put into the fridge, then again heated and cooked, that such conduct by Israel will increase support to the foreign policy of Turkey, which is trying to keep a pace with the changing world.
Q: Is it expedient for Azerbaijan to show open support to Turkey in conflict with Israel?
A: Turkey is now the country that is taking serious steps to change the foreign policy approach in the region. I believe that, in contrast to countries that opposed this approach, the Turkish-Azerbaijani bilateral relations based on historical and friendly relations, as well as a rational energy policy, will clarify the actions of Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Davutoglu in this direction. Therefore, during the conflict with Israel, a country that will feel the need for open support of Azerbaijan, will be Israel, not Turkey, which has historic and extensive ties with the Azerbaijani side. At that very moment, the question of open support for Israel, the state which had previously threatened to expand its relations with Armenia, will be at the discretion of Azerbaijan.
Q: Can Israel lose friendship with Azerbaijan for rapprochement with Armenia and return steps against Turkey?
A: Lieberman’s threats to support ‘Armenian genocide’ will pave the way to creating ties between Israel and Armenia, who are geographically remove, have no common cultural heritage and common national interests and take opposite stances in Karabakh problem. This step by Israel will prepare a preliminary ground for worsening of the Azerbaijani-Israeli relations. If we view the foreign policy of Israel, based on ensuring its territorial integrity, I think that Lieberman will reject steps that will worsen the Azerbaijan-Israel ties.
Q: How real is that Israel will be isolated from the rest of the Islamic world if it loses friendship with Turkey and Azerbaijan?
A: Israel is a country which is geographically situation in the center of Islamic states. All Israeli members are Muslim. Therefore, the isolation from the Islamic world will set Israel in a difficult state. The movement of changes which started in North Africa and designated as the ‘Arab spring’ and spread to Middle East, caused difficulties in Israel’s relations with the regional countries. The rule of new people-supported politicians instead of the leaders of North African states, who were indifferent to the Palestinian problem, show that they will be distancing from Israel. For this reason, while analyzing the policy of Turkey, which was able to understand the ongoing changes in the region better, it is impossible to say that Israel’s distancing from Turkey and Azerbaijan may cause the least rapprochement with the Islamic world.
Q: Can Azerbaijan be a mediator in Turkey-Israel reconciliation?
A: Both Turkey and Israel have good relations with Azerbaijan. But I think that the words of the Israeli Foreign Minister, who is unable to keep the pace with the changes in the foreign policy of Turkey, reduce the need for a mediator to zero.
The official status of Palestine is becoming the main factor of worsening of the Turkish-Israeli relations though, in contrast to most Islam countries, Turkey does not feel a sharp ideological polarization with Israel. The speech of Netanyahu at the UN General Assembly on 23 September and his hints at the need to start peace talks with Palestine, can be viewed as a hope for the normalization of the Turkish-Israeli ties. I believe that definite steps by Israel to solve the Palestine problem will be accepted with pleasure in Turkey. Otherwise, the Turkish leaders will face the threat of losing their positions in the international arena.
Therefore, the mediation which Azerbaijan may take now will be just a repetition of the futile attempts taken by Turkey in other regions for its intensification in international relations. In this context Azerbaijan’s mediation hardly seems expedient.
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