by Cem Oguz, head of the Turkish Center for Strategic and International Studies.
There is no doubt that the Turkish-Azeri relations have made a great progress during the last couple of years. Next week, for instance, the Turkish city of İzmir will be hosting a joint session for Turkish and Azeri ministers under the chairmanship of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Azeri President İlham Aliyev. Both leaders will also be attending the ceremony of a new İzmir refinery built as part of a joint initiative of Azeri State Oil Company and its Turkish partner, Turcas.
In contrast, however, it has become highly customary in the Western capitals to question the nature of Turkish-Azeri relations. The Western world, the U.S. in particular, has been keen to express criticism of Turkey concerning the current deadlock in the normalization of relations between Ankara and Yerevan. More importantly, an increasing number of Western diplomats has come to assert that Turkey has been taken hostage by Azerbaijan.
Those who criticize Turkey’s “love affair” with Azerbaijan, nonetheless, seem to have underestimated key factors in the relationship between these two countries. Actually, an enlightening comparison can be made between Turkish ties with Azerbaijan and those of the U.S. and Israel. I have encountered many U.S. authorities who lamented their country’s unquestioned attachment to Israel which sometimes, in their words, acquires an “irrational or self-detrimental” character. Given the complex nature of their relations with Israel (and also the Jewish people), I wonder if they might envisage it being easy to change this state of affairs. Thus, they must understand that the same is valid for Turks as far as Azerbaijan is concerned.
The reasons that Turkey cannot ratify the protocols are very simple: First, for the sake of regional stability the Karabakh issue should without hesitation be bound to the normalization of relations between Yerevan and Ankara. If Turkey were to open its border with Armenia unilaterally the Azeri authorities, as they keep reminding their Turkish counterparts, would have no option left other than resorting to force.
Secondly, the infamous protocols, especially under current circumstances, cannot pass ratification in the Turkish Parliament. This is a bitter reality which has been underlined by Erdogan on a couple occasions in the recent past as well. Since the Armenian Constitutional Court’s decision of January 2010, voices expressing skepticism among members of the Turkish Parliament have grown louder than ever. Everyone questions whether the Armenian side is indeed sincere to keep its obligations with regard to the commission of historians envisaged in the protocols.
It is precisely for these reasons that the Western capitals need to demonstrate a more decisive attitude and must pressure Armenia. The lack of experience regarding the nature of the Azeri-Armenian conflict, as well as the indifference shown by Western democracies in the region have been the reason all the international undertakings, including that of the OSCE, have gone for naught. Until the present, there has always been calls to continue negotiations. Nevertheless, these weak, reluctant enterprises have not produced any positive results. They unfortunately confirm Baku’s belief that there is only one way to restore justice, i.e. resorting to force. They strengthen, in turn, Yerevan’s non-conciliatory approach to both the issue of occupation and much-speculated normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia.
In particular, at this stage, some major commitments fall on the shoulders of France, Russia and the U.S., which are co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group.
C. Cem Oguz This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
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