Interview with Cory Welt, Associate Director, Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, The George Washington University.
Q: What are prospective of the normalization process of Turkey-Armenia relations in the near future and what it depends on?
A: Turkey-Armenia relations are complicated by their own history, and by the linkage that has been in place for the last 18 years between normalization and the Karabakh conflict. Its clear that today the situation in Turkish domestic politics favors a continuation of this linkage.
The main question is whether any kind of normalization process can move forward in the absence of the full and unconditional establishment of diplomatic relations and opening of borders. There may be less dramatic steps that could be taken that would be helpful for improving Turkey-Armenian relations and, importantly, would not overstep Azerbaijan's own "red lines."
There are two keys as I see it: getting Turkish and Armenian policymakers and publics to accept smaller steps on the road to full normalization and demonstrating to Azerbaijani policymakers and public that improvements in Turkey-Armenia relations do not contradict Azerbaijani interests but are in fact necessary for securing a shift in Armenia's position on Karabakh.
Q: Are you sure the normalization may happen before some progress reached in the Karabakh settlement?
A: No, not at all. Turkey is not considering any dramatic policy change on normalization. It also is much more aware than before of the need to closely consult with Azerbaijan on moves that affect the latter's interest. Azerbaijan does not need to worry about some kind of Turkish "betrayal".
Do you see a direct linkage between these two problems, as they say in Baku and Ankara, taking into account that the Turksh-Armenian border was closed after Armenian occupation of some Azeri lands?
There is, of course, a linkage. The question is whether making withdrawal a precondition to normalization is the most promising way to achieve Azerbaijan’s understandable aims. There are good reasons to believe that improved Turkey-Armenia relations could lead to a positive change in Armenia’s policy toward the occupied territories and promote withdrawal. This is an important aspect of the linkage that should be more carefully considered.
Q: What are the reasons making the West push on Turkey to normalize its relations with Armenia?
A: I wouldn’t say the West pushes or pressures Turkey to normalize its relations with Armenia. But the US government, at least, certainly believes that normalization “without preconditions” is the more promising way forward for a number of challenges in the region. I think the basic impulse is simply a liberal one – that open borders are more productive than closed ones. Also, as you know, the United States has been closely engaged for years in efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict, but these efforts have not been successful. It is natural that it is looking for different ways to “untie the knot.”
Turkey is not willing so much to be the EU member, as it seems. Does it reduce outside pressure on Turkey on “Armenian issue”?
Again, I don’t see this as pressure; rather, Turkey’s friends and allies are expressing support for a position they believe in and naturally seeking to persuade Turkey that their position is better than the status quo. Does Turkey feel pressure to accept their position? Obviously not. But again, if Turkey really wants to get Armenia to withdraw from Azerbaijan’s occupied territories, it has the opportunity to think more creatively about the problem now than it has over the last few decades.
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