Interview with Lincoln Mitchell, Associate at the Harriman Institute and Affiliate at the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University.
Q: How would you estimate the current situation in the South Caucasus? What are the main security challenges in the region?
A: The primary security threats in the region are that one or more of the frozen conflicts could become an actual war. In Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the possibility of war is not great, but still real. Relations between Moscow and Tbilisi are still not good and both governments will continue to have the need to distract populations for poor economic times and frustration with the nature of governance. This alone is not enough to lead to a war, but given the highly militarized nature of the territorial lines it is always possible that a small incident could escalate into something bigger.
Similarly, in NK heated rhetoric on both sides suggests that neither side has ruled out further military conflict. The potential for a conflict there to spread beyond Armenia and Azerbaijan should not be overlooked either.
There are also a number of second tier security issues that should not be overlooked. Increasingly authoritarian regimes in Armenia and Azerbaijan could push citizens and political opponents to greater political opposition which could lead to violence and destabilization. The ongoing economic troubles in Georgia are also potential roots of insecurity in the region.
Q: What were the main results of the Russian-Georgian war in 2008? How did it change the region?
A: The August 2008 war finalized Abkhazia and South Ossetia's departure from Georgia for the foreseeable future. It also underscored the limits of both US and Russian influence in the region. The US demonstrated that it could not come to the assistance of its client Georgia, while Russia failed to win any support from elsewhere in the region for its decision to recognize Abhaz and South Ossetian independence.
Q: Are you satisfied with American policy in our region?
A: At this time, US policy in the South Caucasus seems to be stressing conflict prevention. The US is not making any big steps towards resolving any of the frozen conflicts, but instead seem focused on reducing the chances that any of them will lead to war. The US is also confronting the limits of its ability to impact political development in the region. A big concern for the US is the potential evolution of Georgia into a real US client.
Q: Do you believe that Georgia will succeed to get back Abkhazia and South Ossetia and what should be done for that?
A: If this happens, it won't happen soon. The first thing the US should do is to try to build relationships with civil society and other non-governemntal actors in these places so as to weaken Russia's grip on Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Q: What can you say about Russia’s role in the South Caucasus?
A: Russia is in a mixed position in the region. Russia flexed its muscle in 2008, but does not have as much to show for it as one might think. Resistance to Russia's influence in the region remains strong in the west. Azerbaijan and Georgia continue to seek strong ties to the west because of their concern about Russia.
Q: Isn’t NATO or EU membership a best way for the regional republics to ensure their security?
A: Crafting a foreign policy that charts a course between Russia and the west is the central challenge all three of these countries face. While getting into NATO or the EU would solve this problem, this is at best a long way off.
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