Interview with Azerbaijani parliamentarian, political scientist Rasim Musabayov.
Q: International rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has reduced the forecast of Armenia from stable to negative. How will the economic problems of Armenia affect the internal political situation in this country?
A: Decreased country rating of Armenia means that authorities and banks of this country should not hope for any huge borrowings from international financial markets. The time of paying old debts is near, while Armenia has nothing to pay for them. It will be difficult to restructure the debts. Consequently, the authorities will reduce the extremely low payments and take money to pay debts from the poor Armenian budget. I do not believe that the working government will dare to press on oligarchs and seize their revenues before elections.
In such a situation the only way out for Serzh Sargsyan is to play the nationalistic card and raise military hysteria. The team will likely stake on the slogan: Armenia should tighten the belt, accept difficulties to keep occupied lands”. Armenian military and criminal elite can take any provocative action to make it seem more persuasive.
It is still unclear whether the National Congress headed by former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan dare to raise the issue of war and peace, the need to disavow the unrealistic plans of territorial invasions and adoption of compromises in Karabakh settlement amid run for elections. It is unclear whether he will be understood among Armenian voters.
Personally, Serzh Sargsyan can take a cautious position, bringing the pal of Kocharyan and dashnaks to the foreground as opponents to Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Depending on the response of the population, Sargsyan will build its own presidential campaign after parliamentary elections.
It is clear that Armenia is to have a strained and unclear political year, complicated with the inevitable worsening of socioeconomic situation.
Q: Deputy of the National Assembly of Armenia from the Republican Party of Armenia Ayk Sanosyan was outraged with the fact that the Armenian budget does not envisage any significant spending to support the predominantly Armenian province of Georgia-Javakheti. How can you comment on this statement and how it fits the logic of upcoming economic problems of Armenia?
A: This example illustrates what I have already said. Instead of searching solutions to sharp socioeconomic and financial problems, Armenian politicians rival in playing the nationalistic card.
There is no money for essential things but they make absurd and provocative proposals such as for example the recently voiced proposal in Armenia to release criminals sentenced to long terms in prison for grave crimes in exchange for readiness to settle in the occupied lands of Azerbaijan with their families. We will likely face new initiatives of this kind.
Q: Meanwhile, the fourth congress of Armenians of ‘Western Armenia’ starts in Paris on 25 November. It is to last for three days. The main issue on the agenda is to create the parliament of ‘Western Armenia’. How can you comment on the very fact of the congress and speculations on Western Armenia issue?
A: This is an old idea. It is attempted to actualize before the anniversary of the so-called ‘genocide of 1915’. The aim of the mark the role of Armenia as a party organizing international pressure on Turkey and set as this not the amorphous diaspora (it contains many people who left Armenia for economic reasons) but a pseudopolitical structure in a form of a self-appointed parliament of ‘Western Armenia’. It is difficult to mislead anything by these tricks. But Armenians are masters in historical and political mystifications. If this does not work, they will make up anything else.
Q: Turkish FM Ahmet Davutoglu stated Turkey’s readiness to form a joint commission to study events of 1915. Official Yerevan, as expected, rejected the proposal, stating in the face of Edward Nalbandian that the proposal of the Turkish Foreign Ministry is the attempt to question the fact of recognition of the so-called ‘genocide’ by countries and international organizations. How can you comment on the position of official Yerevan?
A: Nalbandian and his patron Sargsyan have been harping on for long. But the United States and European countries treat Ankara’s position with understanding.
Q: In conclusion, is it possible to say that it was the Armenian diaspora’s stance which led Armenia to its current pitiful state?
A: Economy and finances set the limits of irrational policy. Political games are limited to economy, which revenges seriously to those who ignore its imperatives. Those who cultivate ‘historical hatred and revenge’ instead of peace and cooperation with neighbors make financially and demographically insufficient claims, which have no legal grounds. The ordinary citizens of Armenia suffer from such an unwise policy. They need to listen to the rare voices of reasonable Armenian politicians and intellectuals. But I can hardly believe that they will do so.
Akper Hasanov
News.Az
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