Interview with Turkish political scientist Murat Yesiltas.
Q: How do you assess the decision of the Turkish Grand National Assembly after putting Armenian-Turkish protocols back to the agenda?
A: Normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations is very important not only to the interests of both countries, but also in terms of regional stability and security. "The Arab Spring" not only become a specific test for Turkey in formation of country image as a carrier of peace in the region but also it revealed that peace is impossible to achieve without Turkey.
It is clear that the Armenian-Turkish relations are not a minor factor in the light of processes currently ongoing in the region. However, this process, both in Turkey and Armenia, is perceived as a matter of domestic policy. All the same, as we know, this process is perceived more painfully in Armenia. As for Turkey, here this issue has become more complicated since this process on the one hand creates pressure for domestic policy, and on the other hand it has the potential to affect Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. This situation was openly demonstrated over the past three years.
Azerbaijan and Turkey are struggling with the Armenian lobby. In this fighting Turkey was forced to make many concessions to the United States and Israel. Therefore, the Armenian-Turkish protocols in this context should not be taken in the Turkish Parliament as an abnormal case. The situation remains the same - Turkey, claiming the role of the state, which plays an important role in the region, has to face serious pressure.
Q: So, does the fact of removal of Armenian-Turkish protocols from the agenda of the Turkish parliament and their repeated inclusion on the agenda mean that the policy of the Turkish government has failed?
A: It would be wrong to believe that the Turkey’s policy of ‘Zero problems with neighbors’ has failed. This policy primarily bases on definite principles. Even if these principles are taken as the main components of the foreign policy of the states, some problems won’t be reduced to minimum anyway. Turkish-Armenian relations should be viewed in this very context. Armenia’s public opinion is very sensitive regarding this issue. Armenia views this issue only in terms of opening borders with Turkey, though it was because the sensitivity of the Armenian side, it was their fault that the process was frozen.
Q: What political forces in Turkey tend more to normalizing ties with Armenia?
A: The sensitive attitude of some Turkish regions to Azerbaijan and their prejudice against Armenia promotes specific resistance to normalization of the Turkish-Armenian ties. Certainly, this does not mean that the Turkish government is also sensitive to Azerbaijan. The government formed from the ruling party of Justice and Development leads the powers that are eager to normalize relations with Armenia. However, the party faced some difficulties in this issue. This is an important matter for them in both attaining regional order and preservation of peace.
Q: Which role does the process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations play in Karabakh settlement?
A: In the start of the process intensification on normalization of ties and active involvement of diplomatic mechanisms Turkey set a number of provisions. The main term was liberation of the Azerbaijani lands occupied by Armenians. Turkey indirectly bound itself to the solution of Karabakh conflict by setting the provision of Armenia’s withdrawal from occupied lands. The normalization of relations might have direct impact on Karabakh problem. However, the resolution of this issue does not depend only on Turkey and Armenia.
This is a regional problem which involves Turkey and Azerbaijan and where interests of US and Russia also intersect. Normalization of the Turkish-Armenian relations and resolution of the Karabakh conflict are interconnected. If a positive contribution is made to Karabakh conflict settlement, the relations between Turkey and Armenia will be normalized. And vice versa, if negative things occur in Karabakh settlement, it will affect the Turkish-Armenian ties.
Q: Is new war real between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
A: It is now difficult to make the forecast. Over the past 20 years Azerbaijan and Armenia have been independent and represented in international policy. Armenia’s economy is in a disastrous state. Armenia still views Turkey and Azerbaijan as its enemies. Therefore, Armenia has to spend more funds on defence. This in turn promotes migration processes from this country. Meanwhile, in terms of energy sources, Azerbaijan is a very rich country. Additionally, such a strong country as Turkey is next to Azerbaijan. But I have to note that anyway Azerbaijan and Armenia still have the unsettled dispute. The current situation gives a ground to state that a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia is unreal.
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