Amanda Paul – Today’s Zaman
While Azerbaijan may have a key strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, and be the key to Caspian gas, at the same time the country finds itself in a particularly challenging neighborhood and Baku has had to formulate a shrewd foreign policy to maintain equilibrium.
Turkey remains Azerbaijan’s closest “friend.” While relations have not been without their problems, most recently over Turkey’s effort at rapprochement with Armenia, Azerbaijanis and Turks are united in their shared Turkic identity and have warm relations, with the two leaderships continuing to deepen ties, particularly economic and security cooperation.
While during a recent visit to Brussels, Azerbaijan’s foreign minister declared that Azerbaijan and Russia have “pretty good” relations, built on mutual interests and respect. I think it’s fair to say that most Azerbaijanis do not trust the Russians, with many continuing to resent the role Moscow played in the Nagorno-Karabakh war in the early 1990s. Clearly, with Azerbaijan being the most important country in the South Caucasus, Russia is always looking to increase its engagement in the country in every which way, including in the energy and security sectors. However, Azerbaijan has played this carefully, being cautious over how far and how deep to go with Moscow.
Iran, which Minister Elmar Mammadyarov described as being very close to Azerbaijan historically, culturally and linguistically, remains a tricky neighbor, and Baku would like to build a more predicable relationship with Tehran. With around 30 million ethnic Azeris living in Iran, in the event of a military strike as a result of Iran’s nuclear program, Azerbaijan would be the first country affected.
Tehran also remains obsessed about separatism, closely monitoring Azerbaijan’s policies for signs that Baku is “encouraging” such a thing while at the same time Iran is also continuing its efforts to import its type of Islam to Azerbaijan -- one way or another -- which is not welcomed by Baku and creates tensions between the two countries.
There have also been troubles in the Caspian. In July 2001, Azerbaijani research ships and an Iranian gunboat had a confrontation across their maritime border in a disputed oil field. Since the incident, both sides have worked to establish the boundary in the southern Caspian through diplomatic means. However, with the announcement of troika talks between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan with the EU over a Trans-Caspian Pipeline, Tehran has once again been rattled. Whether or not Iran would return to gunboat diplomacy in the event of an eventual construction of this pipeline remains to be seen.
The border between Azerbaijan and Iran is also problematic, with numerous Azerbaijani border guards being killed each month as a result of drug trafficking from Afghanistan. Armed gangs test the border every night, with huge shootouts taking place.
However, Iran is important for contact with the Azerbaijani province of Nakhchivan, which cannot be reached from the rest of Azerbaijan due to an Armenian blockade. Therefore goods and people transit Iran to reach Nakhchivan, meaning that Iran could always use this as leverage against Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s biggest problem remains the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, with neighbor Armenia and the inability of the two sides to find a resolution. While Nagorno-Karabakh is an internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan, Armenia claims it as a historic territory and in recent times it has had a predominantly ethnic Armenian population. The tug of war over Nagorno-Karabakh has been exacerbated by Armenia’s continued occupation of seven other Azerbaijani territories which they hold as a “buffer zone” although four UN resolutions request their withdrawal. Yerevan has made it clear there will be no withdrawal until a final settlement has been agreed.
There had been high hopes of an agreement being reached at a July Summit in Kazan. Unfortunately this did not happening and the dynamic in the negotiations fizzled out.
During his comments in Brussels, Minister Mammadyarov said that Azerbaijan recognized the need to rebuild contacts and trust between the peoples of the region, stating that Baku proposed a visit of Karabakh Armenians to Baku and other parts of Azerbaijan, while members of Karabakh’s Azerbaijani community, who are presently displaced from their homes, could visit Karabakh.
However, while people-to-people contacts and other confidence-building measures are important, until now there has been no precedent for a bottom-up type of solution. It has always been top-down. Therefore, it is the responsibility of the two leaderships to do more to prepare their societies for concessions that will be required if a solution is ever to be found. Unfortunately, with the region entering a cycle of elections it seems unlikely that 2012 will bring any progress. However, Baku continues to reiterate that while Azerbaijan is frustrated by the lack of progress, Baku remains committed to resolving the problem by diplomatic means.
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