Interview with Iulian Chifu, Councilor of the Romanian President for Strategic Affairs, Security and Foreign Policy.
Q: Have you noticed any crucial changes (for a better or not) in the conflicts settlement at the post-soviet space?
A: Not lately, but we have to realize that since august 2008, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia things did change dramatically. What could be said, after the events on the “elections” in South Ossetia and Transnistria, is that there is a growing influence of the local politics in those regions not always supporting the option of the official Moscow, even though all the candidates have ties and support from bodies in the Russian Federation.
But people in those regions begin to play a more and more important role, even though in South Ossetia there is a depopulation and huge number of refugees not considered in any option for the future of the region, as in Abkhazia or Nagorno Karabakh or even Transdniestria.
In the case of the 5+2 format in Transdniestria there was an impulse given by the German-Russian agreement from Messenberg, but the result is more symbolic than touchable, concrete. It goes on a resuming of the official negotiations that claimed some new compromises from Chisinau, but few guarantees that this would lead somewhere or that there will be more flexibility from Tiraspol, on the contrary. In the Unified Commission, the blockage is complete on concrete issues of confidence building and avoinding provocations.
In the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, we cannot avoid to observe the new law on genocide in France that harmed the direct relations with Turkey and could have an important negative impact on the Minsk group format or process but even on any type of result. It’s already clear that taking separate formats, like the 1+2 that Moscow tried, didn’t lead to any touchable result. So back to square one, but with huge negative impact at the level of confidence between the members of the format and involved parties, as well as in the breakthrough announced at some points in the relations between Ankara and Erevan.
Q: What kind of role may Romania play in the Transdniestria settlement as Republic Moldova’s closest neighbour and strategic partner?
A: Romania does not claim any special formal role. It already plays a role through the EU, but moreover, it has its impact – we like it or not – in the region through the fact of common language, common history and common nation with Chisinau. This is a fact of life, and nobody could avoid taking this in consideration. But the most important part of the game is how to transform Chisinau and the part of administration and territory under its control in a success story, with pro-European reforms and in depth changes in the local administration, administrative capacity, financial regulations and rule of law. The ambitions of local politicians and lack of experience for governing in coalition, personal rivalries are harming this objective.
Everybody is looking at the election of the President and is putting too much emphasis and too much energy in this process – that could lead, it is true, also to anticipated elections again – and avoid maintaining in the forefront the needed reforms. But progress in the free travel objective and Deep and Comprehensive Free trade Agreement negotiations, as well as Association agreement with the EU is there, and this could help local elites in moving more firmly to a new type of administration closer to European type good governance target.
Romania is supporting these developments of the Republic of Moldova and trying to assist, when requested, in the reforms in several fields. It is also willing to assist the authorities in Chisinau to negotiate the agreements with the EU.
Q: What are your expectations from the new Transdniestrian leader? And may any of Transdniestrian secessionist’s leader be independent from Moscow or any other foreign power and be more loyal to Kishinev?
A: We are not talking about this. Competing for this position makes the candidate loyal to the separatist regime and not to Chisinau, but maybe a more pragmatic and realist approach could be found in the potential new president, at least in a more important percentage than in Smirnov’s approach. On the other hand, the signal given by the population who avoid to elect either the “Official” local candidate Igor Smirnov - with the legitimacy of building up the separatism – either Kaminski, Russian Official candidate, supported by the local big business, could give a signal of the need to look more into the local small businesses and local interests of the active population – being known that there is an important percentage of the population from the Eastern Bank of the Nistru River dependent on Russian founds for pensions and social allocation, military salaries that could not be challenged now by no other actor, neither paid by Chisinau.
The new leader has some important problems: that of local legitimacy and support of the hard power in the region, taking control on the tools of the power and economic instruments, than, with a better and consolidated position, moving to real negotiations for the reintegration of the country. This is not the case for the new elected local leader, he has to spend some time and prove its commitments, respond to challenges by his opposition and local owners of the hard power, and I will not expect any changes in the near future, neither a more constructive position in the 5+2 negotiations for some years to come.
Q: The EU expressed a wish to play more active role in the Karabakh settlement in 2012. Is the EU really able to promote someway the peace process in the region with a strong Russian domination?
A: EU can be a honest broker in the Nagorno-Karabakh, with its share of influence and tools and its capacity of leading reforms for the population of the region through Eastern Partnership and Black Sea Synergy policies. It could bring a more balanced approach, also, in what concerns the representation in the Minsk group or in other format, reflecting the common position of the 27 states. If one is not looking at it as a panacea, yes it could help. But the major effort is still the one made in Baku and Erevan, and maybe the current electoral period is not the best in making steps forward.
However, a balanced approach, abstaining from any type of gestures that could lead to exchanges of fire along the demarcation line and pragmatic approach towards the conflict is better at this point. Romania, like all the NATO countries, is respecting the final declaration at the Bucharest, Strasburg-Khiel and Lisbon NATO summit, as well as the final declaration of the NATO-Russia Council in Lisbon on sovereignty, political independence and territorial integrity of “all states in the Euro-Atlantic Region”(NRC Fianl Declaration) or of “Republic of Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaidjan and Armenia”, as it is stated in the Final Declaration of the NATO summits.
Q: Are you sure that the Eastern Partnership is able to bring Azerbaijan and Armenia closer to each other?
A: Easter Partnership is a framework for projects that could lead to improvements of the administration in both countries, democratization processes and peaceful address of the conflict. It could also lead to important dialogue at the second and third track levels, meaning people to people and civil societies relations between the two countries, an initiative that could forge the common understanding of the other’s positions, as well as the in depth interests and needs of the people and of the two societies. In that sense the two parts could be brought closer together.
But it is up to the political elites of both countries to realize the need for a peaceful solution and the fact that history brought the two countries from the Caucasus in a neighborhood position, so they have to find a way to live together, respecting the legitimate claims and discussing the concerns of each of the two parts. It is a process where too much time has been lost by referring always to external actors, expecting too much and maybe making less emphasis on a more structured dialogue between the two parts.
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