A prominent US analyst on South Caucasus Vladimir Socor, who is a Senior Fellow at the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation, is worried that France’s legislation to criminalize denial of the “Armenian genocide” is casting doubt on the objectivity of French mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Mr. Socor, who recently analyzed the latest situation over Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and Minsk Group’s activity, believes that, unlike Russia and the US, France acts in a purely national capacity as a Minsk Group co-chair.
“France does not represent the European Union in this forum, and does not consider yielding its co-chairmanship to the EU. Given the steady growth of EU interests in the South Caucasus, this negotiating format looks anachronistic without the EU”, he noted.
In the meanwhile, the analyst adds, in the run-up to the French presidential election, the incumbent President Sarkozy has initiated legislation to criminalize denial of the “Armenian genocide.”
“Sarkozy seeks to outbid the Socialist presidential candidate, Francois Hollande, who had recently launched a similar initiative, vying for the Armenian diaspora’s votes. Such gestures are not easily dismissed as short-term electioneering. They do impact on foreign policy and diplomacy, directly provoking Turkey, and indirectly casting doubt on the objectivity of French mediation in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict”, he added.
Overall, the analyst believes, the US and France ultimately conceded the role of lead mediator to Russia since 2008, drawing their conclusions from the Russia-Georgia war.
During 2009-2011, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Lavrov hosted serial meetings with their Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts, aiming to draft a general framework for a negotiated settlement of the Karabakh conflict. The US and French presidents, Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy, endorsed Medvedev’s mediation through public statements during various summit meetings with the Russian president.
“Meanwhile, the Minsk Group’s three co-chairs are acting jointly at the ambassadorial level. But the real action has moved to the top level in Russia, with Medvedev and Lavrov operating as mediators outside the triple co-chairmanship. Vladimir Putin, now president-in-waiting, seems set to replace Medvedev as lead arbitrator in these negotiations after Russia’s presidential election”, he says.
According to the analyst, today the co-chairs try to maintain a façade of unity and equality of formal status. However, the triple co-chairmanship is clearly asymmetrical by now, its balance tilting in Russia’s favor. This arrangement is not final or irreversible, but has taken shape in practice and by informal consent.
“From first among equals, Russia has become “more equal” than the other two mediators by all criteria: level of engagement, frequency of meetings, independent initiatives and leverage building. Russia is Armenia’s ally, with troops in place effectively guaranteeing Armenia’s territorial gains at Azerbaijan’s expense. Moscow, however, can leverage that trump card on Yerevan as well as on Baku in mediating between them”, he adds.
“Overall, Russia capitalizes on its pre-existing advantages in terms of range of interests and military weight in the region. The South Caucasus is a higher priority for Moscow than it is for Washington. This misbalance of interests plays in Russia’s favor. It can be rectified, however, if the European Union becomes a more active player in this region, commensurate with its capacities and its interests”.
Speaking about the other regional powers in his one of the recent reports at the Jamestown Foundation, the analyst mentioned that Turkey remains the only major player with pro-Azerbaijan sympathies.
“Turkey is a member of the original Minsk Group, but not of the co-chairmanship that runs the process. The delegation of authority, from the original Minsk Group to the triple co-chairmanship, has barred Turkey from a direct role in these negotiations. Ankara seeks a role commensurate with its regional strength and influence”, he mentions.
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