Joshua Kucher, the analyst of euroasianet.org, conducted a poll among experts.
Answering the question “Where is war most likely to break out in 2012” the experts first named Nagorno Karabakh conflict. The analysis entitled “Predicting Conflict in 2012: Karabakh? Tajikistan? Uzbekistan? Iran?” says that the war may break out as a result of a miscalculation or provocation.
In Nagorno Karabakh, Alex Jackson sees a continuation of tension, but no escalation:
“Along the Line of Contact in Karabakh, the grim litany of skirmishes and deaths by sniper fire will rumble along. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are now deploying drones along the LoC, so expect the conflict to gain a new, aerial dimension (we’ve seen the first signs already). Sabre-rattling, military exercises and soaring defence budgets will all continue, but - as previously – don’t expect a new shooting war.”
Experts consider that Nagorno-Karabakh is by far the most likely place for war to break out.
Central Asia, Georgia and Iran are also regarded as the regions with the possibility of conflict.
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