Amanda Paul – Today’s Zaman
2011 was a lost year for Turkey’s EU membership talks. This is becoming a pattern and as 2012 kicks off one may assume that the process will remain paralyzed unless there is a miracle.
No new chapters in negotiation have been opened since June 2010. Out of 33 chapters only 13 are open, 17 are blocked and only one is closed. While three remain, they are all tricky and usually only dealt with at the end of the accession process. Therefore, it is unlikely Turkey will take steps to open them while EU membership remains doubtful. The Cyprus problem, opposition from key member states and enlargement fatigue stand between Turkey and a seat at the EU table.
Turkey has become increasingly self-confident, boasting that its economy is booming while the eurozone is sinking. The “Hold on Europe, Turkey is coming to the rescue” is now a regular “sound bite” in speeches made by ministers. Meanwhile, Turkey still talks the “We want to be a members and it is a top foreign policy priority” talk. I don’t think anybody really believes this anymore, with the reform process slowing and in some areas going backwards. The European Commission’s 2011 progress report pointed to deficiencies in the areas of freedom of expression and media freedom, among other things. However, the EU’s unambiguous position on Turkish membership means it now has virtually no leverage to push for change.
Realizing the dangers of losing Turkey, the European Commission came up with its “New Positive Agenda” at the end of 2011. This agenda focused on three areas of common concern: the Customs Union, easing requirements and cooperation on counterterrorism and getting momentum back into relations, thereby complementing but not replacing the membership talks. However, the new initiative has hardly been welcomed with massive enthusiasm from member states, and on the visa issue in particular there is little desire to quicken progress towards a visa-free regime.
The EU remains absorbed in its debt crisis, fighting to keep the euro alive, becoming therefore increasingly divided and maintaining little interest in further enlargement. Nevertheless, Turkey and the EU continue to be intertwined in many different areas. Around half of Turkey’s exports go to the EU and 85 percent of all foreign direct investment in Turkey comes from the EU. This makes Turkey vulnerable, because as long as the EU economy continues to shrink, it will impact Turkey.
It is highly unlikely that 2012 will bring any change, with Denmark and Cyprus taking up the EU’s rotating presidency and Ankara remaining locked in a quarrel with Paris over the decision of French lawmakers to make denying the 1915 Armenian genocide a criminal offence.
While Copenhagen has said it looks forward to continuing negotiations with Ankara, Denmark is far from a strong supporter of Turkish accession, although it was at the 2002 Copenhagen Summit that Turkey received the green light to open accession talks. Waves were created when Denmark, which does not participate in the European Defense Agency (EDA), appointed Cyprus to preside over this aspect, given that Cyprus will take over the EU Presidency in July. Turkey has warned that it may withdraw part or all of its forces from Bosnia as a result of this, given that Turkey does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus as the island’s official government.
As for the Cypriot presidency, unless a solution to the Cyprus problem is found before July 2012, meaning that a united Cyprus would take up the EU presidency, Turkey will probably stick to its decision of not taking part in any meetings that are held under the chapeau of the Cypriot presidency. While EU officials have told Turkey it must show full respect for the role of the EU presidency, it is doubtful whether Turkey will comply.
The leaders of the two Cypriot communities, Dimitris Christofias and Derviş Eroğlu, are due to meet with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in Geneva at the end of the January to report on the progress of the peace talks. While 2011 did witness an increased interest by the international community, as a result of initiatives from Ban, the decision of the Greek Cypriots to start drilling for offshore oil and gas and the possible negative consequences on relations with Turkey due to the Cypriot presidency renders success unlikely.
Cypriots have been discussing the same issues since 1968 without success and this trend seems set to continue. The talks are heading towards failure and the international community is simply delaying this inevitability as long as possible. After that there will probably be a “pause” until leadership elections have taken place in the south and north of the island, then the whole “Solving the Cyprus Problem Machine” will start up again.
No doubt Turkey-EU relations will survive another year, but they may further weaken. Nevertheless, neither side has anything to gain by officially ending the talks and of course it is not totally out of the question that one day political circumstances will change and Turkey will sit at the EU table.
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