Interview with Amanda Paul, policy analyst on the EU Eastern Neighbourhood, Russia, Turkey & Eurasia at the European Policy Centre, Brussels.
Q: The EU has offered assistance to Azerbaijan in the post-conflict period - demining, land restoration, confidence building measures etc. But what kind of role can the EU play before a peace agreement is achieved?
A: It is clear that the EU's role in the conflict remains rather restricted as it is not involved in the peace talks. While France is a member of the OSCE Minsk Group, it has never represented the EU. However, while in the pre-settlement stage, the EU is quite limited in what it is able to do, there is an increased conviction among EU member states that Brussels must also play a more active and visible political role, given this is part of the EU's neighbourhood and, moreover, the EU is increasingly visible in other conflicts in this post-Soviet space.
The EU will be primarily focused on civil society activities and on building people-to-people contacts between the various communities, particularly with young people. In particular the EU should work towards facilitating contacts between the leaderships and the people where there is a vacuum at present.
The peace negotiations are very much an elite-driven exercise with very little or zero connection with ordinary people. Given that ultimately citizens will need to vote in a referendum for the final deal, there is an urgent need for them to be better and more honestly informed about what it's all about, and also to allow them a stake in the process, which is presently not the case.
Q: The head of the EU delegation, Ambassador Roland Kobia, told journalists that the EU going to enhance its engagement in the Karabakh settlement in 2012. What is your outlook on that?
A: Indeed the EU has said that it intends to deepen its involvement in the Karabakh conflict in 2012. This was stressed by Miroslav Lajčák, managing director for Russia, Eastern Neighbourhood and the Western Balkans in the EU's External Action Service on 7 December. He said the EU would like to increase its role in the conflict resolution process, but not at the expense of the OSCE Minsk Group.
It seems that the EU is presently in talks with the Minsk Group on what their next steps are and what the EU could do best to support them. I believe this may include increased civil society engagement, efforts to help counter the negative rhetoric in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and increased dialogue with other regional players - Turkey and the very important Russia which has very much been driving the peace process over the last year or so.
Q: Some experts propose substituting France in the OSCE Minsk group with another EU member to make the co-chairing states' work more productive. Would it really help?
A: As the saying goes, "you can bring a horse to water but you cannot make it drink". Such is the case with the Karabakh conflict, the leaderships of Azerbaijan and Armenia and the OSCE Minsk Group. Ultimately it is up to the two leaderships to agree a deal. It is doubtful that simply by replacing France, a deal will be easier to reach.
Of course, there is the possibility that a new country could bring some "fresh air" and perhaps more enthusiasm, not having been absorbed with NK for years. However, it seems to me that all options to resolve this conflict are already on the table and have been discussed now for many years. At the end of the day, as long as the two leaderships continue to see alternatives to comprise, no amount of chopping and changing the Minsk Group will help.
Q: May Azerbaijan's membership of the UN Security Council in 2012-2013 promote the negotiating process or at least make the Karabakh problem more known in the world?
A: Azerbaijan's election as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council brings with it great responsibility. Azerbaijan needs to use its seat in a careful, serious and credible manner.
Azerbaijan's leadership has stated that it intends to bring Nagorno-Karabkah to the agenda of the UN, including raising the issue of the occupation of Azerbaijani lands. To date, the UN has passed four resolutions on the conflict demanding the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied territories, but none has been implemented. This is clearly something which Azerbaijan's population is expecting. However, it would be a mistake to simply use their seat as weapon against Armenia.
Baku also needs to give attention to serious global issues such as the economy, climate change, terrorism and issues of multi-culturalism. For example, Azerbaijan could be an effective intermediary between the US and the Islamic world, as Azerbaijan has, in 2011 alone, hosted several high-profile events which promoted the concept of multiculturalism, tolerance and inter-religious dialogue. Indeed Azerbaijan has a lot to contribute and with the right sort of strategy Baku has the opportunity to play an important role, as well as to raise its global profile.
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