Interview with Azerbaijani political expert Rasim Musabayov, an independent member of the Milli Majlis.
Q: What are your expectations of the next round of talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents on resolution of the Karabakh conflict? The talks will be held in Sochi this month with the mediation of Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev.
A: This will be the last meeting Dmitriy Medvedev holds as Russian president with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia. I think that Medvedev has put in a lot of effort into promoting a Karabakh settlement during his four-year presidential term. The meeting in Sochi will be a farewell meeting for Medvedev and I do not expect it to achieve any breakthrough on the Karabakh settlement. I am also not too sure that the meeting will be rich in content.
Anyway, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia will come to Sochi and meet Dmitriy Medvedev. Upon completion of the talks the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia will at best thank Medvedev for his efforts on a Karabakh settlement and say that they appreciate Russian mediation and will continue to search for a peaceful solution to the conflict.
Q: Why do you say that the trilateral meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia in Sochi will not manage any positive achievements in a Karabakh settlement?
A: There is no new proposal on the negotiating table. Moreover, we cannot not see any attempts by Russia to put heavy pressure on Armenia to be constructive.
There is the fact of the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenians and that the Armenians do not want to liberate these territories without attaining their goal of legalizing the separation of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan would have agreed 15 years ago, when the country was in a tough position, but it is absurd to expect such concessions from Azerbaijan today.
Now the Armenians want to protract the Karabakh conflict and to make Azerbaijan commit to the non-use of force in any document while the occupation continues. Of course, Azerbaijan refuses to sign such a document. And I cannot see a single factor that could force Azerbaijan to change this position.
Q: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that the political resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh and Transdniestrian conflicts will be a priority in Russian foreign policy in 2012. How effective can Russian activity be, given that Moscow's assistance in resolution of the Karabakh conflict has yet to be effective?
A: Russia is to hold presidential elections in March this year. A new president will be elected and Russia will probably have a new foreign minister. After the inauguration of the new president and appointment of the foreign minister, new foreign policy priorities will be set in Russia. Therefore, I do not expect Russia to propose new initiatives on the Karabakh and Transdniestrian conflicts.
Q: How likely is that, by agreeing to take part in a major project implemented by the United States or Russia, Azerbaijan may obtain decisive support on a Karabakh settlement from one of the two superpowers?
A: As far as Russia is concerned, a major project would imply Azerbaijan’s participation in the creation of a Eurasian union. However, this union is not yet of any interest to Azerbaijan. As all Azerbaijan's communications pass through Georgia and Turkey, it would be senseless for Baku to join a union that does not include these countries. Therefore, I do not think that this alliance can be of any interest to Azerbaijan. Moreover, no one else will be able to find any benefit for Azerbaijan in the Eurasian union. On the contrary, there are intentions to feed satellites and settle political problems through Azerbaijan. I do not think that Azerbaijan today will be willing to take decisions to participate in the Eurasian Union.
However, Baku will not reject the proposal to join the union categorically. Baku’s approach will be: set up a fully functioning union and if we think we can benefit, we'll consider joining.
As far as the United States is concerned, a major project would imply the location of US military bases in Azerbaijan. The important question here is whether the Americans give any guarantees of security to Azerbaijan, or assume any commitment to ensure the territorial integrity of the country? If the Americans undertook this commitment, Azerbaijan would locate even three US military bases on its territory. But there are no such commitments, while it would be unwise for Azerbaijan to assume the risks of granting its territory for the military and geopolitical plans of the United States. This would mean that Azerbaijan would risk being one-on-one with Russia and Iran. Therefore, Azerbaijan interacts on a bilateral basis with both the USA and Russia while making its interests the cornerstone.
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