“We shouldn’t rely on the Armenian-Turkish process that it can solve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict”, Europe Program Director of the International Crisis Group Sabine Freizer told bs-kavkaz.org.
She said she positively approached the Armenian-Turkish protocols. “The ratification of the protocols would strengthen relations between the two neighbor countries and assist establishing stability in the region. If the protocols are not ratified, the process started between Armenia and Turkey will disappoint both societies. Let’s hope that it will not take long time because in any case common interests and interests in the normalization of the relations exceed other factors”.
Sabine Freizer noted that after the ratification of the protocols, Turkey can assure itself of the recognition of its territorial integrity and Armenia can not raise territorial claims against Turkey. “I believe that after that Armenians will give up demands to recognize genocide. Regarding Armenia, the ratification of the protocols will cause the opening of borders with Turkey and establishing diplomatic relations. It will bring foreign policy dividends to Armenia. The historic facts will be discussed at the commission of historians. By settling its relations with Turkey, Armenia will demonstrate to Armenian diaspora that it can pursue independent policy not depending on them. In one word, it will be in favor of both sides”.
Sabine Freizer said there are forces in the Armenian and Turkish opposition that oppose the protocols.
“But there is another important obstacle – Azerbaijan. Baku is sure that Turkey closed the borders because of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and the borders must not be opened unless Armenia withdraws its troops from Karabakh. When Turkey started talks with Armenia it thought that it could hold talks without taking into account the opinion of Baku and did not expect the Azerbaijani side to reach so strictly. But they miscalculated. Azerbaijan could influence the Turkish government, the people and the nationalist forces made Ankara to take into account the position of Baku in the relations with Yerevan,” she said.
Sabine Freizer said Armenia-Turkey relations and resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict are two different processes.
“One can not claim that these two processes are not interrelated at all. But at the same time one should not hope that Armenia-Turkey process will solve the Karabakh problem. The best variant in the resolution of Nagorno Karabakh is the one offered by the OSCE Minsk Group, it envisages granting interim status and security guarantee to Karabakh. Nagorno Karabakh has been in isolation for long years, it has relations only with Armenia. Nagorno Karabakh has a government, growing economy. Therefore, the interim status will enable Nagorno Karabakh to establish relations with the international community and involve investments,” she said.
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