Interview with Russian journalist and political scientist Rustam Arifjanov, vice-president of the Eurasian Academy of Sciences, chairman of the Mediakratiya National Association of Journalists.
Q: How would you assess the situation developing around Iran?
A: The situation is not favourable either for Iran or the entire international community - and first of all not favourable to Azerbaijan. The US chose its goal long ago. It doesn't matter what the state is called that they think is hampering them in establishing regimes which will be democratic.
Iran became a target of the US and its satellites back in 1979 after the victory of the Iranian Islamic revolution. Since then, every attempt has been made to destroy this regime and the Americans have not backed off from this goal. It’s not known how soon they will reach it, though, since Iran is a powerful country.
But we know and have seen that the Americans get what they want in the end. By hook or by crook, they reach their goal.
Q: Do you think that missile strikes will be launched sooner or later?
A: Yes, they will if they cannot ruin the regime in other ways. Bomb strikes are not necessary. In fact, today problems are not always solved by force. Despite the ideological fortress, the Islamic regime is also experiencing certain corrosive influences. We have the notion of network warfare where people are psychologically affected by radio, satellite transmission and the Internet. In this case, the danger for the Iranian regime is the incitement of ethnic hatred. It’s a very convenient method for whoever wants to ruin Iran, since Iran is a multi-ethnic country which is home not only to Persians but also to ethnic Azerbaijanis and Kurds. And this is very dangerous. So I would ask our fellow countrymen to carefully consider appeals for the unification of the Azerbaijan Republic and the province of South Azerbaijan (Iran).
Recently we saw that even some MPs have begun to call for the Azerbaijan Republic to be renamed North Azerbaijan. Why are we hearing such calls now? In fact, just now the aggravation of the situation between the Azerbaijani and Persian population of Iran is not so advantageous for the Azerbaijan Republic. All these statements in Baku have a degree of naivety, although it is very beneficial to some forces to stir enmity not only with Iran, but also with Azerbaijan. The main thing is not to fall into this trap.
Q: If war happens in Iran, how will it affect Azerbaijan, in particular, the Karabakh conflict?
A: No doubt, it will have an effect. If military action involves the South Caucasus, and this seems likely, a completely unexpected scenario will unfold and will certainly have an impact on the course of the Karabakh conflict. But I would call on our country not to view all these problems through the spectrum of the Karabakh conflict. Yes, it is our pain, our main problem but international politics is more varied than one conflict. So, we should ensure that we do not find ourselves hostages to the Karabakh conflict. There are many who would like to see us in this position.
Q: We know that in late January, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev wants to hold another tripartite meeting on Nagorno-Karabakh. Is it worth hoping for anything from this meeting?
A: We should thank Medvedev for his efforts on this during his presidential term, but we have to admit that they have not brought much success. Dmitriy Medvedev really wants to leave office, having made significant progress in the conflict. Therefore, we should seek new models of conflict resolution, perhaps even using the factor of strained relations between the West and Iran, but we have to play a very fine diplomatic game. It is necessary to count the moves and invent new options.
No doubt, we will resolve the Karabakh conflict, but we should do it without losing any neighbour or partner.
Q: When you say that we need to find new formats and ways to resolve the conflict, does this mean that we should give up the OSCE Minsk Group as the format for talks and look for new options?
A: We should continue to address this issue within the OSCE Minsk Group and use the status of a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council to conduct regular talks with representatives of the UN member countries. We should act on all fronts. We should begin to work with the Armenian lobby. We need to think and come up with some non-military operation to break up the Armenian lobby in France and the US. We need to think how to confront the elite, composed of ethnic French and French nationals of Armenian origin. We should create a conflict situation inside the Armenian diaspora and drive a wedge between the diaspora and Armenia. In other words, we should work more cunningly, flexibly and effectively.
Perhaps at first glance, it does not seem realistic, but we have to think, to consider options that include additional tools as well as use existing ones. That is, there's no need to cancel the work of the OSCE, but we do need to invent something new.
Hamid Hamidov (Moscow)
News.Az
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