Interview with Azerbaijani military expert Azad Isazade.
Q: Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan has accused Azerbaijan of violating the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. Azerbaijan is indeed actively arming itself and does not conceal that it is doing so in case of a military scenario to resolve the Karabakh conflict. To what extent is the Armenian minister's accusation justified?
A: First of all, the flank agreement has long since been left just on paper. Since the second Chechen war, Russia has repeatedly breached the agreement, dozens of times. The one Russian military base in Armenia alone exceeds the whole quota assigned to the country. However, Armenia seems to have transferred part of its quota to Russia.
I'm not even talking about Russian factions deployed in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
So, if we're talking about violations, all of them violated this agreement before we did. In fact, the flank agreement does not exist. De jure, on paper, the only country that violates this agreement less than others in the region is Armenia and this is because the main groupings of Armenian armed forces - armoured vehicles, artillery, and so on - are located on the territory of the occupied lands of Azerbaijan, and, according to Yerevan's assurances, it bears no responsibility for them.
It is as though the military hardware in Karabakh does not belong to Armenia. But in reality, the Armenians have long been placing their surplus weapons in Karabakh and this area does not fall under the jurisdiction of inspections to monitor the southern flank, as it's not subject to consideration. At the same time, Armenia has slightly more of these weapons than the permitted quota.
Q: As I understand it, Armenia is arming itself in violation of international law?
A: Armenia gave part of its quota to Russia and although Russia has accepted this, it is still exceeding the restrictions. The quota that was left for Armenia (excluding hardware deployed in the occupied territories) is still exceeded slightly.
Q: Is there any mechanism to monitor the observance of these quotas in accordance with the CFE Treaty?
A: There is a mechanism – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia should annually receive eight inspections from any European countries which are involved in this treaty and show tanks, all their armour, artillery and other equipment. But these eight inspections cannot enter Karabakh and, therefore, cannot check out what is there. Plus, it should be remembered that Russia said it would withdraw from the CFE Treaty and agreement on the so-called “southern flank” is actually part of this treaty.
Q: Should we expect the Armenian minister's allegation of Azerbaijani violations of the CFE Treaty to be followed by attempts to make Baku unilaterally observe the terms of the document?
A: There are certain structures that are watching the situation, and if necessary, they would have reported it. Armenia is a participant in the conflict and as an interested party, it can claim anything. It would not praise Azerbaijan. So, the impartiality of the Armenian minister's claims is highly questionable.
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