Azerbaijan holds a presidential election on Wednesday almost certain to return Ilham Aliyev for a second term, continuing the oil-rich state's tradition of unbroken Aliyev family rule.
The mainstream opposition is boycotting the poll, alleging a crackdown on democracy and media freedom has stacked the cards against them. A booming economy has only diminished their chances of unseating Aliyev.
Few doubt the 46-year-old incumbent will clinch a second and -- according to the constitution -- final five-year term. But what comes next is far less certain. First under Heydar Aliyev, and since 2003 under his son, Azerbaijan has balanced itself between Russia and the West as the two compete for influence over its vast supplies of oil and gas from the Caspian Sea.
But this summer's war between neighbouring Georgia and Russia -- in which Moscow demonstrated how far it will go to protect spheres of "privileged interest" in its ex-Soviet backyard -- has changed the rules of the game, analysts say. The West's response to an election already seen as flawed could tip Baku one way or the other.
"They (Azerbaijan) want to continue to play all sides, try to keep everybody happy, which I don't think they'll be able to do for very much longer," said Svante Cornell, research director at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. "They'll have to make a choice. The way they go depends very much on this election and how the West reacts to it."
The country of 8.3 million people lies at a strategic crossroads between East and West, sandwiched between Russia and Iran and straddling a region emerging as a major energy transit route from Central Asia to Europe. Home to a key Russian radar base, the mainly Shi'ite Muslim country has pursued closer ties with NATO and sent troops to Iraq.
"No coup, no revolution"
But repeated criticism of Baku's restrictions on democratic freedoms and its endemic corruption does not sit well with its strategic importance to the West. Europe's main democracy and human rights watchdog has accused Azerbaijan of persecuting journalists after it jailed critical writers. The Vienna-based Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe has also criticised election standards. In 2003, when Aliyev won his first term, two people died when police broke up opposition protests. Hundreds were arrested.
"It's impossible to talk about free expression of the will of the people," said Ali Kerimli, leader of the opposition Popular Front. "This vote is not a competition." Kerimli's party is one of those boycotting. But analysts say the opposition knows that even without Azerbaijan's democratic flaws, its chances of winning are already slim while Aliyev oversees one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.
The president's critics say that despite the fast cars and building boom in Baku, the oil wealth has yet to reach the rural poor. But few predict a repeat of the 2003 protests. "The election campaign was dull, because the result of the vote is predetermined," said analyst Rasim Musabekov. "The conditions aren't there for a revolution or a coup."
Analysts say the United States and Europe -- anxious not to lose Azerbaijan as a strategic ally -- will choose their words carefully when assessing Wednesday's poll. Signs that Baku -- spooked by disruption to oil and gas exports through Georgia during the August war -- has increased oil shipments to Russia and started selling crude to Iran.
A smooth election day, despite a flawed campaign, could be enough to clinch a "non-negative" response, said Cornell. "If that happens, it will go a long way towards providing an opening for greater Western engagement in Azerbaijan, in turn securing Azerbaijan's Western orientation."
Reuters
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