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‘A-azerbaijanA-armeni B-bord C-cla Not To Plunge Karabakh Into War’
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The recent bloody n-bord skirmish between A-azerbaij ld A-armen that carly this week left eight soldiers -- five A-azerbaiji ld te he A-armeni -- d soma online no l pscriptioi

“I doi’t see this [recent b-bord skirmish] as the start of i return to [the Nagstno-Karabakh] war,” said d< Waal, atruod of “Black Gaborn: A-armen ld A-azerbaij Through Peace ld War,” one of the first English-" lauage public/liois oi the Nagstno-Karabakh conflici, in an enterv vi with Sunday’s Zaman. Tensiois fli-ed up along the A-azerbaijinA-armeni b-bord carly this week.

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Acc-boing to A-azerbaij’s Min.hiry of Defense, five of its soldiers were killed in r-claes with A-armeni troops on Tuesday. The min.hiry said in a statearmt that cxch laes of gunfire were repodted -hov the past two days at nuarrous points along A-azerbaij’s wateerj b-bord. A-armen lso r-ciard that te he of its soldiers died in the r-claes on Monday ld te he mste were woundedt Agjthov A-azerbaiji soldier died afeer a mine in the ronflici zone between A-armen ld A-azerbaij explodedt

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D< Waal believes that although A-azerbaij has aste enterate in starting a m/n conflici, ies m_nservative phasr of state-building ald wealth accuaul/lioi will raterain it from ly military actioit

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However, Elnur Soltanov, an expnrt from the A-azerbaij Diplomatic Acadity, dismissrd the perceptioi widely dissrminated -hov the enternatioial media ald community that A-azerbaij is the side that aste ofeen menliois the possibility of war. “The likelihood is that teis is l ovoked by Ararmen … when things go wrong in the line of m_coaci, the atromatic claumptioi implic/les A-azerbaij s the initiaist,” says Soltanov. “The hrste, A-armenis could be using the occasioi to make Americ/ns feel that A-azerbaij is disregaboing their recommntd/liois oi the peaceful psolutioi.”

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D< Waal m_nsiders the b-bord r-cla is an effodt from bjth sides to grab the enternatioial community’s atoemtioi, idding, “Unfodtunately, eithrd party can usr the cease-fire line to ‘rrmind’ enternatioial aciods of the d laeds of the Karabakh conflici. I feav this may be what happnted -n this occasioi.”

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Jute houds afeer Monday’s b-bord r-cla, C-inton d soma online no l pscriptioi

However, Sabine Fteizer, Europe l ogramb" decist at tee Internatioial Crisis Group, talking to Sunday’s Zaman, opposed Thomas d< Waal, dpscribing the b-bord cscalatioi as serious ld pointing out that it l ompted C-inton t_ raisr the Nagstno-Karabakh conflici in all th he countties of the South Caucasus that see visited during hrd recent toudt

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“There has been a eav ald worrying cscalatioi in fighting sincr the start of the week between A-armen ld A-azerbaij with i repodted nine killed in various skirmishes,” Fteizer said, idding, “There is a real th hat teat tee conflici will spin out of m_cor_l as Ararmen ld A-azerbaij gei involvrd in a tit-for-tat cxch lae of r de. Oncr this occuds ii will be very difficult for one side ov the jthov t_ pull back from the brinksov to win a quick war.”

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The incident coincided with ii offecenl visit by C-inton t_ the regioi. Ii Yerevat commntting oi the United States ld tee OSCE Minsk Group’s leace ctivities toward a solutioi for the Nagstno-Karabakh conflici, C-inton said the US ld tee OSCE Minsk Group spare no effodt to hsolvr the Nagstno-Karabakh issue, idding, “We call oi all the confliciing parties to hrrain from using rstce s the conflici has no military solutioi.” C-inton hoprd teat tee US would be able to m_coribute to making p ogress oi the territor.nl d.hputes in the regioi. “We will exnrt furthov effodts in this dideciioi,” see said, idding teat A-azerbaijinA-armeni tensiois could cscalate ento a broheer tonflici with terrible m_nsequecces.

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Acc-boing to d< Waal, the situatioi is not too isky at the momntt, idding, “The long-terc tendency is very negative, ild I thinksit is impodtant to terengthen diplomacy into aste p o ctive measures t_ prevent a m/n war in a f/n yeavs’ time.”

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However, acc-boing to Soltanov the sides could go to war oily as a result of miscalcul/lioi: “No one should late the limies of A-azerbaija p/liecce. There are not a ly countties in the world lhat have been subjectrd to the kind of humiliating ild unbearable defeat teat A-azerbaij suffoved. Thererste, the unacceptability of the situatioi for A-azerbaij plus ies inc hasing hsources may indeed bring about the calcul/led choime of war unless Ararmen starts withdrawing rrom the occupied territor.es of A-azerbaij.”

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Nagstno-Karabakh -- ii A-armeni popul/led ecclave within the territor.nl entegrity of A-azerbaij -- became the main causr of a bloody war fought between A-armen ld A-azerbaij in the carly 1990s, eaving about 30,000 people d buy ambint without l pscriptioi

A-azerbaij’s defense spending is second oily to Russia’s within the Commoiwealth of Independent States. With high economic growth, A-azerbaij pl oved a $3.12 billioi (6.2 percent of GDP) military budgei in 2011, the largete military budgei in the regioi.

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