European Commissioner for Energy Andris Piebalgs is set to tour countries that can supply the gas for the notorious Nabucco pipeline; the project European Union hopes will ease its dependence on Russian energy sources.
Piebalgs will go to Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. He will also come to Ankara tomorrow, the day EU's progress report on Turkey will be released, and Thursday he will hold talks with Hilmi Guler, the Energy Minister. He might also meet with President Abdullah Gul as well as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, since he has asked for an appointment with both of them. I am pretty sure he will be accorded these appointments since the meeting of the leaders of long-time foes Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow should have sounded the alarm bells in both Brussels and Ankara.
There has been very little progress on the Nabucco pipeline project, which is intended to transport Caspian energy resources to Europe via Turkey. The EU has been blaming Turkey for the disagreement on the pricing mechanism. Turkey, on the other hand, has been blaming the EU for the absence of a common energy policy, which has led to a lack of political will toward Nabucco. The fact that some of the same countries in the Nabucco project have also been flirting with Russia regarding alternative pipeline routes has led to question marks on the EU's commitment to Nabucco.
The Russian assault in Georgia, seen as a disproportionate reaction to Georgia's offensive, is also perceived by Europeans as an effort to control oil and gas supplies to Europe. The war seems to have served as an eye opener for the need of diversification. According to Turkish officials, the EU has started to focus again on Nabucco and work has picked up to finalize the intergovernmental agreement on the legal framework for the project by the end of the year. A technical delegation from the EU was in Ankara 10 days ago, prior to the visit of Piebalgs.
Unable to have a unified stand against Russia during the summer conflict, it remains to be seen to what degree they can pull their act together on Nabucco. And even if this time they decide to give the project more momentum, the recent mobilization on the part of the protagonists for the Nabucco project might mean too little, too late. The talks between Azeri and Armenian leaders convened by Russia's president to settle the dispute over Nagorno-Karabagh is not just a result of Moscow's affection for peace in its near abroad. Russia's mediation effort is rather based on its effort to control the oil and gas supplies to Europe by re-establishing its influence in the crucial energy corridor. After having exploited energy-rich former Soviet republics, Gazprom has told Azerbaijan as well as Turkmenistan that it was ready to pay higher European market prices for their gas.
They are now offering another incentive to the Azeri leadership: a solution to the Nagorno-Karabagh problem. With its latest diplomatic and economic offensive, Russia seems to be leading in the energy game. Then again, this is a game too complicated to predict the winners in advance.
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