Richard Giragosian, an Armenian-American analyst who has been based in Armenia for the last two years, has said an open border between Turkey and Armenia would be a good move for both sides, as Armenians would be able to import and export goods at a much lower cost by circumventing the Georgian monopoly on the trade route and Turkey would benefit from its role as a transit state.
He also said Turkey even may benefit more from such a move than Armenia in the short term. "The opening of the border will help the Turkish government offer economic stability to the Kurdish region, especially job creation and some new economic activity. Also that kind of cross-border trade will lead to a bigger and larger role for Turkey in the region."
Turkey severed its ties with Armenia in the early 1990s in protest of the Armenian occupation of the Azerbaijani territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Official Turkish policy has stipulated that the normalization of ties depends on Armenian withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh, the termination of the Armenian policy of supporting claims of an Armenian genocide at the hands of the Ottoman Empire and an official endorsement by Armenia of the current border between the two countries. There are signs of a possible resolution to the conflict as both sides have started to show signs of backing away from insistence on preconditions for the opening of the border.
When you look at the Turkey-Armenia rapprochement from the Armenian side, what obstacles do you see ahead?
If we look at the diplomacy, we see that it is not only the Turkish efforts to reconcile many outstanding issues. This Armenian government, more than many other governments in the past, is facing an internal political challenge of limited legitimacy and very limited popular support. So a breakthrough on Turkish-Armenian relations with this Armenian government is more important than ever before.
Do you say that because of the present Armenian coalition government?
I say this because on March 1 we saw a violent clash between the opposition and the government. President Serzh Sarksyan was elected in February. That was an election tainted in terms of voting fraud and irregularities, like many elections before. What was different, however, was the opposition
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