According to the "peace plan", first Armenia will withdraw from the 6 regions of Nagorno Karabakh that it occupies. Following that, Azerbaijani people of Karabakh who had to abandon their homeland because of Armenian occupation will be able to return their lands. In the third stage Nagorno Karabakh region will be passed down to a temporary administration for determination of its status. And as its status is being determined Kalbajar Rayon will be returned to Azerbaijan too. In return, Azerbaijan will open borders and railway traffic to Armenia. And as fourth and last stage, international peace force will be settled to the border between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh.
The peace plan of Hurriyet is refuted first by Armenian, then Azerbaijani and lastly by Turkish Foreign Ministries. Besides Armenian officials stated that they do not need the mediation of Turkey over the resolution of Karabakh problem and they stressed that negotiations are going on with OSCE Minsk Group co-chair states( Russia, U.S. and France).
It is really hard to say that a solution for Nagorno Karabakh problem is close. Although some analysts say that parties agree on 90 percent of the solution plan, the dispute lays on that part of 10 percent. Because even Armenia seems to be ready about withdrawing 6 rayon of Nagorno Karabakh, it does not want to leave three important Azerbaijani city; Kalbajar, Shusha and Lachin. Other than that Armenians want to insert clause of "referendum" which will define the status of Nagorno Karabakh. This referendum clause proposes to ask people for their opinion about the freedom of Nagorno Karabakh. This referandum is not suitable for the interests of Azerbaijan cause even Azerbaijani immigrants return their homeland Armenians will have more population. In the political atmosphere of Armenia, the wind of "free Nagorno Karabakh" is still strong.
Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents signed a joint declaration for the first time in the mediation of Russian President in 2008. But this declaration had no effect. During this year similar declarations might be signed but those would not mean we are closer for a solution in Nagorno Karabakh. And Azerbaijani administration does not relay on Moscow any more. There were reports about Russia transfering 800 million dollars worth military arms to Armenia just after that declaration. As the mediation of Russia, its neutrality was an object of interest, and now we cannot say that Azerbaijan trusts Russia.
It is comprehensible that some journals and writers in Turkey wish a solution for the Nagorno Karabakh dispute. Because it is difficult for Turkey to open its borders and establish diplomatic relations with Armenia before Armenian forces leaves Azerbaijani lands. But it is a truth that Ankara wants to be free of the pressure of EU and studies of Armenian lobbies over closed borders. In that aspect, there are question marks in the mind of Azerbaijani public opinion if Turkey establishes relations with Armenia abandoning Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh. Some columnists in Turkey have a rethoric of "we should immediately establish relations with Armenia", and that increases the doubts of Azerbaijani people. Other than that, there stays Yerevan which makes everything even more complex.
Political circles in Yerevan struggles to kill the trust between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Newspapers started to write, "Turkey is ready for normalization with Armenia without any precondition", "Only precondition of Turkey is establishing a joint commission for researches over genocide". And Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan says that progress is made in the reconciliation process with Turkey.
Elhan Sahinoglu
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