On one hand increasing importance of Turkey for U.S. and on the other hand pledge of Barack Obama to Armenian lobby in U.S. over recognizing "genocide". Number of the comments boosts by time mentioning that Obama does not know how to deal with this dilemma.
On the other hand recent statements of Foreign Minister Ali Babacan shows that Ankara is not very comfortable over this issue neither. Foreign Ministry is not ready to recognize the approach of "Obama is coming to Turkey, this issue is over."
It is not clear if this situation in Ankara is because of a deep cautiousness or "deep information" that is not reflected to the public opinion. Of cource this might be a tactical move too.
It is possible to evaluate the approach of Babacan as, "While our relations with Armenia is just out of deep freezer, while we are on the period that the steps with Armenia about to be made that you wanted since years, don't you dare to ruin this atmosphere."
On the other hand, if there is another authority with dilemma in the world, it is Yerevan. Sarksyan administration is aware that they cannot follow a different policy over "genocide" issue from traditional approach of Yerevan to the issue. Such policy certainly has political cost.
In the same breath, Sarksyan administration cannot afford to waste the reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia which will bear fruit in short time basis. No need to think so much over this issue for understanding the reasons of it.
After 15 years of experience, Yerevan administration saw that normalization with Turkey is a must for curing the chronical economical problems. It is obvious that Yerevan has a strong desire for this since it can even propose cooperation in nuclear energy which has strategical importance for countries.
Although, we see that the Armenian diaspora, not mentioning regional problems of Armenia, which has no idea over the situation that Armenia is in, does not have an intention like comforting Yerevan. The ones who follow diaspora media can realize how Armenian diaspora struggles both for the congressional recognition of "genocide" resolution and for Obama to use the term "genocide" in his speech on 24 April, considering "this might be a last chance".
After all factors that aggravates the initiatives of Armenian lobby increases too. Recognition of Turkey's independent historians committy by public opinion of World and seek for normalization between Yerevan and Ankara also "i apologize to my Armenian brothers" campaign could be examples for that.
Vital importance of Turkey for U.S., normalization process between Turkey and Armenia, more sensitive approach of Turkey to 1915 events make us to believe that Armenian lobby will not achieve its achievements again.
General conjuncture and "law of the instrument" take us to this point. We will see if it is right or not soon.
But, the real bothering issue is that Turkish and Armenian nations have to live same trouble in April of every year. It is high time for finding a better way which is better for both parties.
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