Analysts following two years of secret talks said the two sides have now agreed on a sweeping package that includes opening a shared border closed since 1993, beginning diplomatic relations and setting up a bilateral intergovernmental commission on issues ranging from customs, tax and public health to history.
Turkey is also expected to release a "road map" on a solution on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan that has been under de facto Armenian control since 1994. "The parameters of the deal are very much set," said Hugh Pope, the Turkey project director for International Crisis Group, which is currently working on a report about Turkish-Armenian relations.
"The only thing holding things back now is nerves."
Analysts in Yerevan said the two governments have tentatively agreed to reveal the package on April 16th, when Turkey's foreign minister is expected to fly to Yerevan for talks.
Senior Turkish foreign policy officials refused to confirm the date. The Armenian foreign ministry was unavailable for comment.
"These are highly sensitive negotiations and both sides have gone to great lengths to keep them secret," said a Turkish foreign ministry spokesman.
A radical change of direction from Turkey, which closed its border with Armenia in support of its Azeri ethnic cousins fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh in 1993, the normalisation deal has been on the cards since the AK Party took power in 2002. Talks accelerated considerably after Turkish president Abdullah Gul attended a Turkey- Armenia football match in Yerevan in September 2008.
Thomas de Waal, author of a highly regarded book on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, thinks the deal has a lot to do with changes in Russia
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