There were people of all ages. In the front seats were religious leaders in black cloaks. Following opening prayers, at least a dozen members of congress took to the stage one by one and delivered speeches defending why Armenian claims of genocide should be recognized.Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the house, was also among those who spoke. The meeting proceeded as if it were a closed-door one, with words criticizing Turkey being enthusiastically applauded by the audience. The Democratic incumbent from California's 29th district, Adam Schiff, one of the most fervent supporters of Armenian claims of genocide, expressed that US President Barack Obama's view of recognition of the claims has been put on the record more than that of any other US president.
In order to fully understand how Obama is stuck between the will to improve relations with a key ally -- Turkey -- and his pledge to a group of voters, it is enough to observe this meeting. As the Armenian gathering continued in Congress, a development occurred that placated Obama's team, which begged: "We don't want to offend Turkey. But please do something to assuage our president." A joint statement released by the foreign ministries of Switzerland, Turkey and Armenia stressed that Turkey and Armenia have come to terms on a roadmap as part of efforts to normalize ties between Ankara and Yerevan.
In a speech he delivered in Turkey, Obama stated that his ideas regarding Armenian genocide claims have not changed but that he would not like to take a step that could stall the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia. The joint statement by Switzerland, Turkey and Armenia could have been issued during Obama's landmark visit to Turkey. However, pressure from Azerbaijan and a sensitive atmosphere following last month's local elections in Turkey spurred political mechanisms to ponder the issue again. Obama was involved in the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia upon a request from Ankara. He held talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan and Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian during his visit to Turkey. He also spoke with Azerbaijani President ?lham Aliyev over the phone.
However, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an's recent statements in which he said relations between Turkey and Armenia would not normalize unless the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is solved caused concern on the American side. Armenians started to signal that they would not guarantee omission of the word "genocide" during Obama's statement on April 24 unless they were convinced about a "momentum" in the normalization process. Ankara, on the other hand, asked Washington to "do something," saying the ties between Turkey and Armenia were no longer an issue between the two countries, adding that Azerbaijan, Russia and energy security were already involved in the matter. US Vice President Joe Biden phoned Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan earlier this week. And Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew J. Bryza was sent twice in three weeks to Azerbaijan. The main aim was to search for ways to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.
In the meantime, the Turkish side reached US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton through an intermediary and tried to learn the content of Obama's April 24 statement. Clinton and other US officials told Turkey that the US president was in a difficult position and asked for Turkey's help. This week, sources close to the US administration started to voice concern that Obama was 50 percent likely to utter the word "genocide" during his expected statement. It was clear that Americans were willing to keep the atmosphere tense to guarantee a step by Turkey toward the Armenian side. They were reluctant to give any clues about the content of Obama's speech. However, following Obama's successful visit to Turkey, it would be almost impossible for him to insert the word "genocide" to his statement today.
It is also very unlikely that Obama will indirectly mention the word "genocide." The Turkish side was spurred into action upon hearing that Obama may say something to the effect of "Historians have reached a consensus that the killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks during World War I constitute genocide." They conveyed a strong message to the Americans that any such remark would go against the idea of "establishing a joint committee of historians to shed light on the incidents," which is included in the normalization package. Americans seem largely to have been convinced over this point, but the idea that "historians are of the opinion that there is genocide" is still not completely unlikely.
On the other hand, in the event that Obama refuses to insert the word "genocide" directly or indirectly in his statement, the White House may prefer to use a discourse harsher than in the past so as to not completely offend Armenians in America.
For example, a discourse similar to remarks made by Sen. Robert Menendez about the appointment of Marie Yovanovitch as the US ambassador to Armenia may upset the Turkish side. In his letter, dated July 29, 2008, Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs Matthew Reynolds called the 1915 incidents a "mass massacre" and "ethnic cleansing," saying, "Our aim is not to open a debate over whether the Ottomans really committed those crimes, but to help protect documents which prove that those incidents really happened."
The Armenian genocide is a thesis largely accepted by intellectuals in the US. Politicians also favor the idea of recognizing these claims. However, the desire to not offend Turkey due to US strategic interests is likely to weigh more heavily than the intellectual and political views of the US administration. Similarly, it seems unlikely for the US Congress to pass the Armenian genocide resolution -- at least this year -- as it is unwilling to put US foreign policy in a difficult position. The fate of the resolution, numbered 252 and supported by 200 members of the US House of Representatives, seems to depend on concrete steps such as the opening of the border between Turkey and Armenia as part of the normalization process.
Ali H. Aslan - Today's Zaman
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