Assoc. Prof. Sedat Laciner evaluated Turkey's crucial relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia's role in this triangle was also examined. He explained some important points about Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The issue of improving Turkey-Armenia relations came to the agenda especially during Obama's visit to Turkey. What could be Obama's contribution to the process of improving relations?
First of all, I would like to say that the issue of improving Turkey-Armenia relations and the problems between Turkey and Azerbaijan on this topic did not begin with Obama's term and Obama's visit to Turkey. The dialog between Turkey and Armenia started a long time before Obama's presidency. It has been almost 7-8 months since Turkey's President, Abdullah Gul, visited Yerevan. Negotiations began at the ministerial level before the President's visit. Turkey and Armenia tried to increase visits to each other; one of the Armenian ministers came to Turkey, and one of the Turkish ministers went to Armenia. During these visits and negotiations, both parties tried to identify the tasks that they have to do in order to open the borders. Nothing at all started with Obama; however, he will accelerate the process of negotiations.
Armenia has not taken a positive step until today. Do you think that Armenia will change its hard line? And how will it be possible to change this attitude?
The world has blamed Turkey for the closed land borders until today. Armenia claimed that Turkey and Azerbaijan, as two Muslim countries, enclosed and tried to annihilate Armenia. The U.S., Canada, France, and Russia have especially strong Armenian Diasporas, including influential people in the media, universities, and politics. At every turn, these people have looked at Armenia as if it were the victim. However, Armenia is not the victim; on the contrary, it is an occupying country. Armenia has been holding a larger region than the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Karabakh is only one part of the Armenian-occupied territories. Only Azerbaijani people live in the rest of the Armenian-occupied territories. On the other hand, the international community did not react to Armenia as they reacted to Israel and Serbia. Due to this lack of criticism and punishment by the international community, Armenia has continued to make the same mistakes. If the U.S. and EU had put at least half as much pressure on Armenia as they did Turkey, the land border would already be opened today.
Is it possible for Russia to break up the improved relations in the region for its own sake? And what policies will Russia follow?
Russia considers the Caucasus like its backyard and regards the region as Russian territory. Thus, Russia does not view Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan as independent states, but believes they will one day come under Russian jurisdiction. In this sense, Russia has divided Georgia in three parts: Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Georgia. It is claimed that Russia has plans to divide Cevahiti, where the majority of the Armenian people live. Armenia could never get rid of Russia's influence. The Armenian occupation of Karabakh was possible due to Russia's military support. It is obvious that Russia influenced the victory of Kocharyan over Levon Ter-Petrossian in the Armenian elections. Moreover, Russia already has captured the Armenian economy; in particular, almost the entire energy sector is in Russian hands.
Azerbaijan is one of the countries attracting Russia's influence in the region. Azerbaijan is intensely hostile toward Russia for its support of Armenia on the Karabakh issue. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is one of the countries in which Turkish nationalism is very strong. The languages of the two countries are so similar that people don't need a translator. Russia could not block the positive environment between these two countries because of their close historical, cultural, and social ties.
However, Baku became frightened when the Georgia-Russia war broke out because there were some disruptions in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Baku saw that Turkey and the U.S. could not protect Georgia against Russia. Moreover, Azerbaijan realized that it was too risky to only depend on the Turkey-Georgia line and that improved relations with Russia were necessary.
Russia also took advantage of this environment, using pro-Russian bureaucrats in Azerbaijan to propagandize against Turkey. Unfortunately, Turkey could not read this process accurately enough. When the process to normalize Armenia and Turkey relations began, the anti-Turkish lobby appeared in Azerbaijan. In the last 6-7 months the lobby has become more outspoken in Azerbaijan, loudly expressing that Turkey had agreed with Armenia and stabbed Azerbaijan in the back. Pro-Russian groups in Azerbaijan decided to close all Turkish enterprises, civil society organizations, and schools in Azerbaijan a few months ago; some Azerbaijani government officials and governors were also involved in this plot. These secret decisions will be applied, and Turkish institutions and organizations will be expelled from Azerbaijan. Moreover, these pro-Russian groups declared war against the Turkish language of Turkey. They try to limit Turkish TV series, instead promoting Russian TV programs. Recently, most of the discomfort emerging in Azerbaijan is based on Russia. In my opinion, Aliev is in desperate straits because of pressure from the Russian lobby.
Do you think that if the relationship between Armenia and the Armenian Diaspora is breaking off, the process will normalize? Or is breaking off the relationship a fantasy?
Armenia is an economically poor country with a population of less than 3 million. The population of the Armenian Diaspora, however, is approximately twice the population of Armenia. Moreover, Diaspora Armenians are wealthier than the Armenian government. There is an imbalance. We can say that if Turkey had 140 million abroad in the Turkish Diaspora, and if they were more economically and intellectually powerful than the Turks in Turkey, then Turkish politics would be controlled by the Turkish Diaspora. Armenia Armenians want to open the land borders and normalize relations with Turkey as soon as possible. However, Diaspora Armenians struggle to continue the problems between Turks and Armenians forever, since the identity of Diaspora Armenians is built on problems with Turkey. They think that if the problems are removed, their identity will be assimilated. If the dependence between Armenia and Diaspora can be broken, problems could be solved quickly, but this is very difficult. Diaspora Armenians are even able to vote in Armenian elections. There is an emotional and an irrational dimension in Armenian politics that is the most difficult point for Turkey. The emotional dimension depends on Diaspora Armenians. Because of this, the negotiations between the two countries have been carried out in secret. If open negotiations continue, the Armenian government might collapse. Tashnaks especially think that even establishing dialogue with Turkey is a betrayal to Armenia.
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