Turkey has had close relations with countries in the South Caucasus, excluding Armenia, since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Its ties with Georgia and Azerbaijan go well beyond ordinary neighborhood ties.
When last year’s Ossetia crisis developed into first a Georgian-Abkhaz and then a Georgian-Russian war, ensuring increased tensions between Russia and the US in the Black Sea, Turkey realized that it had to be on the alert. Turkey had conducted a proactive diplomacy since the very beginning of the crisis, and it engaged in shuttle diplomacy to contain the damage caused by the conflict. It also proposed a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform with a view to developing a vision of regional peace and cooperation amidst the crisis. As a matter of fact, it managed to create a remarkable vision out of this crisis.
While the Ossetia crisis prompted Georgia, Russia, the US and the EU to revise the extent of their power and influence in the region, it taught Turkey how issues that are kept in the deep freeze in its immediate region may unexpectedly spin out of control and develop into crises or conflicts. Having learned its lesson well from this crisis, Turkey concluded that the frozen crises in its immediate region may be reignited at any moment like the Ossetia crisis and, therefore, that it had to act urgently to find peaceful solutions to these crises. This conclusion further suggested that talks should be conducted to ensure that frozen crises would be transformed into issues that no longer carried the potential of developing into crises. After launching the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform, Turkey, which had already been successfully implementing its “zero problems with neighbors” policy for some time, felt it necessary to normalize its relations with Armenia, which was the last link in this chain. It is for this reason that those who think the process of normalization with Armenia was kicked off just to ward off the passage of an Armenian genocide resolution by the US Congress are mistaken. The process of normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations is the inevitable consequence of the new Caucasus vision Turkey has adopted. In order to implement this vision, Turkey started a process for normalizing its relations with Yerevan, on the one hand, and another process for the peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue through talks between Yerevan and Baku, on the other. Of course, no one expected easy and smooth progress for these parallel processes. It is obvious that we are not making hassle-free progress. Nevertheless, attempting realign the stones on a previously disordered path, Turkey has managed to ensure that frozen crises can be brought onto the agenda once again in a peaceful manner. Until very recently, the Karabakh issue had not been on the agenda of the international community, but the whole world is now aware of the fact that there is an issue that must be settled in Karabakh. Following Turkey’s involvement in the process, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group, which had long been lying dormant, was reactivated, and busy diplomatic activity to find a negotiated resolution to the Karabakh conflict was started. If Ankara had not launched talks with Yerevan for normalization, no one would have been talking about the Karabakh issue. Baku should be the first to realize this reality and assess Ankara’s efforts correctly. There is no doubt that from the start Turkish diplomacy has been aware of the fact that this process will be troublesome and that even the idea of opening Turkey’s border with Armenia would seriously upset Azerbaijan. Consequently, during this process, Ankara has not lost its calm and has always kept channels of communication with the Azerbaijanis open without panicking in the face of harsh criticism from Baku. Turkey has been pursuing a delicately balanced policy and has never considered the possibility of normalizing relations with Armenia at the expense of losing Azerbaijan. The fact that — supposing the border crossing had been opened — any armed conflict on the border of Karabakh or Azerbaijan would automatically lead to the closure of this crossing is perhaps best known by Turkish diplomats and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davuto“lu, the mastermind of Turkish diplomacy. In addition to being “one nation with two states,” Turkey and Azerbaijan have deeply entrenched relations with respect to energy security and relations with the EU. Thus, Turkey can never be expected to turn its back on Baku. Turkey has never had such an agenda. Turkey is simply pursuing an integrated approach to the region, where it seeks to change a status quo that does not serve Armenian, Turkish or Azerbaijani interests. In this quest, it is getting significant support from the EU and the US. Given that no one desires to see a change in the status quo via armed conflict and that it is now obvious that the never-ending negotiations of the OSCE Minsk Group will not create a solution, nothing is left but for Turkey to move some stones. The roadmap for the possible normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations announced in Sweden on April 23 had a triggering effect. Naturally, the trouble-laden process initially led to a crisis of confidence with Baku. However, Turkish diplomatic resources underline that visits to Baku, first by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo“an and then by Davuto”lu have helped to overcome this crisis and that the Azerbaijani administration is now convinced that this process of normalization will also be beneficial for Azerbaijan. Although Erdo“an announced that the border crossing would not be opened before the occupation of Karabakh ends both ahead of and during his visit to Baku, there are concrete expectations that the process of normalization will gain momentum in the coming days, after the St. Petersburg conference. It can be argued that Erdo”an’s remarks concerning Karabakh might have shocked Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan, who was more hesitant about conciliation than Azerbaijani leader”lham Aliyev during the meeting in Prague. We hope these remarks will keep Sarksyan from falling victim to the misconception that Armenia can achieve normalization with Turkey without paying any price. For now, we can conclude that despite recent seemingly contradictory moves, Turkey has not abandoned its vision for peace and stability in the South Caucasus. It has maintained its determination to do what this vision entails. In this scope, it is trying to keep Armenians and Azerbaijanis motivated for acting toward a resolution to their conflict and lasting peace.
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