PREVENTING THE "BUTTERFLY EFFECT"

Tuesday, 14 July 2009 09:22

From the outset of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement I have been one of the outspoken proponents of that process. I used all possible means to convey to my fellow citizens the idea that the final normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations will have a positive impact on both countries. More so, I was very clear in saying that all the problems between Turkey and Armenia are possible to solve only AFTER establishing diplomatic relations and trust between the two countries. I had to defend my argument vehemently with a hope that Armenians would continue embracing the importance of trust and dialogue. I was hoping I would see reciprocation from Turkey as well.

Unfortunately, as of now, all this is on standby.

Prime Minister Erdo“an is a politician of dedication and cause. In a recent book dedicated to the „Milli G“r”“” I cover his political ascent emphasizing the fact that he represents the very generation of politicians in Turkey that has values other than the “post-September-12th leaders.” Prime Minister Erdo“an is also known as an individual that occasionally generates tension rather than coming up with credible and lasting solutions. The latest public opinion survey carried out by the Armenian Centre for International Human Development indicates that Armenian public opinion became more skeptical concerning the settlement of the Karabagh conflict partly because of Mr. Erdo”an“s assertive and unconstructive remarks concerning the process of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and linking it to the Karabagh negotiations.

The results of that interesting survey allow us to assume that Mr. Erdo“an has done his job; i. e. appeased both nationalist circles within Turkey and the Baku leadership. However, from the geo-strategic and sociological perspectives, his remarks and announcements have imposed as much damage to Armenia as to the national interests of Azerbaijan. Prime Minister Erdo”an“s policy contradicts the logic of commitment of President G”l, who along with Armenian President Sargisyan, last September took the responsibility to solve the problem of misconception and stereotypes; i.e. both acknowledged that in each society they are opponents of rapprochement, hence, a great deal of work needs to be done to overcome the persistent sense of distrust and pessimism.

Observers admit that compared to Turkish officials, the Armenian leaders have acted a little better in helping society understand the cost and benefits of establishing diplomatic relations. Armenian government and pro-government forces were active in bridging the public opinion with the leadership“s approach. Opposition forces as well, particularly, the former coalition partner “Dashnaktsutyun” organized multiple conventions and not all of them were to prove that establishing diplomatic relations and opening the border would harm the national interests of Armenia. Therefore, it could be claimed that Armenia has done its homework, while, Mr. Erdo“an is doing his best to prevent Turkey from following Armenia”s lead.

It is not difficult to discern, that in this case, Turkish leaders had to play a challenging and “multi-centered” game with different actors and different rules. After Erdo“an”s statements, Armenian society slowly began to rethink its attitude on the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and question the sincerity of Turkey“s position. Armenians also doubt whether the ruling AKP alone is able to solve the problems with their nation. It needs broad political support to overcome this imbroglio. Prime Minister Erdo”an should realize that he is dealing with a sensitive society. Such a move would help him avoid remarks that could have a “butterfly effect.”

VAHRAM TER-MATEVOSYAN

(Vahram Ter-Matevosyan is a Senior Research fellow at the Department of Turkish Studies at the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia.)