The key of the process of normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia is in the hands of Azerbaijan. For the Ankara-Yerevan normalization, Baku-Yerevan normalization is required. And for that to be happened, encouraging of a superpower is required.
It is well known that the process of normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia is backed by Western countries. But sure, there are issues that should be overcame.
And it is also well known that the most important issue is the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Unless the conflict is resolved, Ankara and Yerevan cannot establish ties and balances at Baku and Yerevan axis gets disturbed.
And Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group holds efforts towards resolution of this conflict. OSCE MG
At that point, critical country is Russia. Because Russia has influence at whole region and even stronger influence over Armenia. Actually most of Armenians rely on Russia more than Europe or United States and consider that Russia will be on the side of Armenia if it gets into trouble.
But before the conflict between Russia and Georgia, Russia was dragging its feet to encourage parties towards resolution of the conflict. But nowadays, situation is different. Russia acts as it really wants a solution for the dispute. For example, Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents held their last meeting in the mediation of Russian President in Moscow.
The meeting between Aliyev and Sarksyan lasted 3,5 hours. Foreign Ministers of the countries and delegation from OSCE also established contacs. And following those a trilateral meeting was held between Aliyev, Medvedev and Sarksyan.
And what are the results of these meetings? It is not easy to tell that now. No document was signed as a result of Moscow meeting of Presidents although it is clear that there is progress.
Of cources there are rumours about the negotiations. For example return of five regions to Azerbaijan which are currently under Armenian occupation. But non of those are official now.
If we should leave the results to a side, and consider about the situation again, parties of the conflict are holding this much intensified meeting traffic for the first time since 1994.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan met for the sixth time within one year. This is important if we should consider that there is an ongoing war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Other than that, Russia’s active participation of the process of resettlement of the Karabakh conflict is another positive aspect.
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