HistoryofTruth.com - Armenian Allegations

The recent rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey for the normalization of relations between the two countries might cause a breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh stalemate, regional analysts agree.

S. Enders Wimbush, senior vice president of international programs and policy at the Hudson Institute, states: “This [the opening of borders between Armenia and Turkey] will require intense and delicate diplomacy with Azerbaijan. [However], both Turkey and Azerbaijan will benefit if they succeed.”

The normalization efforts between Ankara and Yerevan have shaken Turkish-Azerbaijani friendship for a short period. In 1993, after the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, post-Soviet countries in the South Caucasus, the diplomatic ties between Armenia and Turkey became strained. Supporting its strategic ally Azerbaijan, Turkey closed its borders to Armenia to force the latter to respect the borders of neighboring countries (as Armenia has territorial claims on Turkey as well).

Azerbaijan’s primary resistance was over the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, which conflicts with Azerbaijan’s policy of economically depriving Armenia in the region and hereby ensures easing the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

Russia, the dominant power in the region, is solely interested in maintaining its grip. As the region is part of the former USSR, it is in Russia’s interest to preserve its influence in the region over the countries of the post-Soviet areas, particularly that of the South Caucasus. While doing so, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has attempted to manipulate the regional countries through long-protracted conflicts such as Abkhazia and South-Ossetia, two breakaway regions of Georgia allegedly supported by Russia and Nagorno-Karabakh. In the early years of independence, Armenia, the primary actor in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, fell under the dominance of Russia, which earned Armenia the status of the only ally Russia has in the post-Soviet Caucasus. The Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, resulting in a 20 percent loss of Azerbaijani territories and afterwards the closure of the Turkish border to Armenia as a means of sanction, pushed the latter to be more aligned with Russia. In the shadow of the economic and military development of the Azerbaijani government, Russia continues to pursue its dominant policy over the country through its notorious economic leverage. Through deals over natural gas with Azerbaijan, Russia attempts in this way to control the country and to maintain power. To such an extent, Russia keeping both sides of the conflict under its umbrella of influence maintains, in this way, its power in the South Caucasus. Calling the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict critical, Andrew  C. Kuchins, the director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), says, “For more than 15 years Moscow has seen its interests best served by the status quo of “frozen conflict’.” Mentioning the role of Russia in keeping regional conflicts alive and making them rest on its interests, the expert said: “Last summer we witnessed two frozen conflicts unfrozen in Moscow’s favor in Georgia. I am dubious that Moscow would support any resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh that reduced its leverage in Armenia and Azerbaijan from the status quo.” However, the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could be regarded as a brilliant opportunity to drive Armenia out of the control of Russia, to pull the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from stalemate and in effect, to bring peace and stability to the region. In contrast, Kuchins restated Russia’s policy of dominance serving to keep the countries in the South Caucasus under its control in the region. He is skeptical that Moscow really supports the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and the border opening since that would reduce the leverage that Russia has over Armenia. Isolated in the region by Turkey and Azerbaijan because of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, having direct trade with US-led sanctioned Iran and with Russia through the territory of its conflicting neighbor Georgia, Armenia is in an uneasy situation in the region. Reaching out to the Black Sea coast and getting direct trade with Western markets, Armenia can get away from Russian dependence and thereby achieve true independence and sovereignty in the region. Speaking to Sunday’s Zaman, Wimbush stated that it is in everyone’s (Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and all the neighbors) interest, especially Turkey’s, for the improvement in relations with Armenia to go forward.”However, such a development will be opposed by Russia, which seeks to keep Armenia locked into Russia’s “special sphere of influence’ and to keep Turkey dependent on Russia for strategic guidance in the South Caucasus. According to Wimbush, Russia will oppose Turkey becoming more deeply involved in the Caucasus, despite the Caucasus being a primary strategic interest for Turkey. Underlining this idea he adds that as Russia supplies 64 percent of Turkey’s gas via a range of existing and planned pipelines, Russia has the power to prevent Turkey’s initiative. With the statement, „Turkey should be prepared for some strong Russian blackmail,“ he reiterates that Turkey should be bold in throwing open its border with Armenia. The Turkish-Armenian rapprochement marked the souring of Azerbaijani-Turkish relations; however, Turkey claimed that it might push Armenia to compromise in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Although the Azerbaijani administration preferred to keep silent, saying that this is an issue that concerns Turkey and Armenia only, there was a growing concern among the Azerbaijani public that Armenia could benefit from the border opening. This, in turn, conflicts with Azerbaijan’s policy of economically depriving Armenia. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo”an’s speech in the Azerbaijani Parliament had a considerable effect on alleviating tensions between Azerbaijan and Turkey.