SOPHIE QUINTIN ADALI
Last summer brought not only a heat wave to the region, but also a war in Georgia. The French-brokered peace agreement was hailed as a momentous success, but since then, the war of words between Moscow and Tbilisi has continued, and so has the tension. In the aftermath, there was a growing sense that many leaders were striving to distance themselves from the Georgian leader, who they now saw as a"liability.„ Yet the democratically elected president is no quitter, and in the face of European “cold-shouldering,„ protest at home by a minority, and unfriendly moves by Russia (recognition of Abkhazia and military maneuvers), he is holding his ground. His liberal economic reforms have paved the way for a successful democratic and economic transition and his popularity ratings must be the envy of many a governing European politician. His unrepentant fight to break from the post-Soviet sphere is a thorn in the ambition of its powerful neighbor and former master. His pro-western aspiration (EU and NATO memberships), now a thorn in Europe? s energy policy....
In August 2009, the temperature is rising again on the beaches of Europe? s southern Rivieras, and also in a more ominous way, on the fragile confrontation line between Georgian and the Russian forces. This independent nation, proud of its freedom and success in turning the country into a functioning liberal democracy, is understandably concerned that the EU Monitoring Mission, or EUMM, is a flimsy deterrent should the aggressive Russian rhetoric once again turn into action. More European boots on the ground as President Saakashvili proposed with an extension to non-EU stakeholders (the U. S. and Turkey) makes sense. The EU’s response was predictably disunited but the French voice was the strongest. A statement by the French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner rejecting the idea (July 27) highlighting that the EU — French presidency or not — does not really have anything to offer Georgians to protect them.
In the wake of the 2008 aggression, Cato scholar and former Putin aid, Andrei Illarionov argued that European democracies had made a historical mistake and chosen a course of appeasement similar to Munich in 1938. Last winter, the EU’s shockingly inadequate response during the second gas war illustrates that he was right. Even when its own citizens freeze, Europe could only manage a huff and puff. The 2009 gas “war„ with Ukraine and the 2008 conflict in Georgia were temporarily resolved, more or less, on Russian terms. The European Commission acceded (July 31) to Russia? s plea for money by securing international loans for Ukraine and thus prevent with “soft power„ a repetition of last winter’s gas cut (€1.2 billion from the EBRD and İMF). With President Sarkozy no longer"l’american"but"le russe,"and the likelihood of less"hyper"euro-diplomacy in the weeks ahead, the EU? s consensual decision-making mechanism is pushing the block down the road to more appeasement. As French intellectual Andre Glucksmann puts it,"Can Obama and the European Union contain Moscow? s ambitions and whims? Or will they purchase a fallacious and precarious tranquillity by sacrificing Georgia? s independence?"(http://www.cato.org/ journal. org/2009/eon0730ag. html). That is indeed the question. For now, conflict prevention in the Caucasus and peace in Europe rests entirely on a small force of EU observers (OSCE observers having been vetoed out by Russia). Despite Washington? s rhetoric of"resetting"relations with Russia, will the new administration be prepared to break the break the current status quo? An EUMM without U. S. boots on the ground would probably suit everyone just fine. But what could be more important and pertinent than the inclusion of Turkish personnel? An official candidate for EU membership, a major power in NATO with soldiers serving alongside EU forces in Afghanistan, it is a country with a common border with Georgia and with the most direct stake in regional stability. The Turkish foreign ministry has already indicated it views this idea favorably.
Then predictably, comes the “Gallic„ anti-Turkish “knee-jerk„ reaction. Turkish observers are not welcome. Nor presumably is a more confident Turkish foreign and energy policy in the Caucasus. Although the process of normalization of relations with Armenia and the Nabucco gas pipeline project attest that Turkey is no longer the “sick man of Europe,„ France will clearly not relinquish its historical influence without a fuss. Extending to non-EU countries is not an option says Paris because it could be a “provocation toward further incidents„ (Brussels, July 27). You would almost think that the Kremlin was speaking.
In Dr. Illarionov’s opinion “collaborationist„ policies with the current Russian regime is nothing more than “an open invitation for new adventures in the post-Soviet space and at some points beyond it"(http://www.city-testimony/ct-ai- 20090225. html). The warning has been issued.
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