HistoryofTruth.com - Armenian Allegations

The geopolitical struggle for control over the energy carriers' supply to Europe is in a full swing, The Wall Street Journal daily writes: “Tied to Russia’s Gazprom with a 25-year export agreement signed in 2003 and building a 40-billion-cubic-meter pipeline eastward to China, Turkmenistan is unlikely to be in a position to produce additional volumes by 2014. Even if this forecast is proved wrong, the unresolved legal status of the Caspian Sea alongside Russia’s and Iran’s negative stances on the issue mean the future of the Trans-Caspian pipeline is rather blurry. This is why Azerbaijan began to be regarded as the potential prime supplier of Nabucco by Brussels and Washington earlier this year. However, even this option will present economic and security challenges.

As the prime oil exporter in the Caspian region, Azerbaijan’s production of this commodity will start falling from 2013—2014 and there is a risk that by 2020 the country’s oil supply might not be self-sufficient. If this happens, the use of gas in the domestic market will increase significantly, especially in light of the government’s goal of developing the non-energy sectors of the national economy, which would leave smaller volumes available for Nabucco than currently planned.

Ethno-political conflicts in the South Caucasus, such as the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, pose fundamental risks to Europe’s efforts to diversify its energy supply. With rapidly increased defense spending by Azerbaijan, the intermediary powers“U.S., Russia, France and U.K.”are trying to persuade the country not to resort to force under any circumstances. This effort is rather futile. The Kosovo and Georgia conflicts have already set a dangerous precedent. In today’s greater Europe, successful self-determination may increasingly be achieved through the use of force rather than principles of international law or compromise. Therefore, with regard to Nagorno-Karabakh, negotiators should focus on reconciling the principles of territorial integrity and self-determination to achieve peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This would open the doors for the former to participate in transnational energy projects in the region.“