By Gokhan Bacik
Turkish-Armenian relations have entered a new phase with the declaration of a protocol for the establishment of diplomatic ties. This protocol, which goes beyond the mutual gestures and symbolic steps taken thus far, will lead to a text that is able to create some concrete results that could potentially become the objects of international law.
Naturally, this should be seen as a strong indication of an announcement concerning the will and intentions of the parties. The ongoing friction and clashes between the parties since World War I and the overall situation of the Caucasus region will be changed after the implementation of the protocol. In a way, this sends a strong and decisive signal to resolve history, which has been frozen.
The most striking aspect of the protocol, which was partially published in the media, is undoubtedly the mutual agreement concerning the opening of the common border within two months after the protocol is implemented, as explained in Article 1. This announcement of the intention of the parties confirms that the current stage of Armenian-Turkish relations is irreversible, considering that the preservation of the status quo with respect to the borders was perceived as the biggest obstacle and barrier before making any progress in bilateral relations. Many attempts have been inconclusive because of this barrier. After opening the border, an important obstacle that serves as a tool to perpetuate the problem will have been eliminated. More importantly, the protocol underlines that the parties will make their archives and historical resources available to researchers. With such an engagement, the parties declared that they have adopted a lenient and constructive approach with respect to such a delicate issue. Lastly, the parties’ eagerness to open diplomatic missions as underlined in the protocol should be mentioned.
How should this briefly explained text be interpreted? Above all, this short text gives the impression that the parties are eager for an integration deal. In addition to resolving their problems, the parties want to cooperate in the fields of culture, education, economy and transportation. The reason for the emphasis on such concepts in a protocol between two countries whose border still remains closed is obvious: Turkey and Armenia need each other, considering the recently developed projects that will affect the destiny and prosperity of the region. However, two points should be underlined: Turkey and Armenia are not equals in terms of international relations. For this reason, assuming that the protocol will work well, it would not be wrong to argue that Armenia will fall into the sphere of influence of Turkey. Undoubtedly, this will have serious consequences for the entire Caucasus region as well as for Russia and other actors. Secondly, Armenia gets back into international relations with the protocol. At the moment, Armenia is practically separate from the international system because of its isolated profile and weak economy, despite officially being a part of the international world. Relations between Armenia and the international system are carried out via limited channels controlled by Russia. Like Syria rejoined the international system via Turkey, Armenia is trying the same means to integrate with the global world. This may have serious impacts on the culture and political life of Armenia.
Thirdly, Armenian political elites who attempted to improve relations with Turkey likely initiated a process in their country. Rapprochement with a country like Turkey, which is obviously able to integrate and communicate with the world and has visible influence in the web of international relations, will lead to some radical changes in the social and political structure of Armenia. The
The protocol has started a fairly critical psychological process concerning relations between Turkey and Armenia. It should be recalled that any international problem may create fertile ground for some political actors. For this reason, it is possible to expect attempts to disrupt the process of rapprochement between the parties. There are actors whose survival depends on the presence and substance of such problems in both Turkey and Armenia. These actors will try to rely on propaganda suggesting that the protocol is detrimental to their national interests. There is one way to deal with such obstacles: acting swiftly and protecting the process against external harm.
*Assistant Professor Gökhan Bacık is an instructor at Fatih University. .
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