BARÇIN YİNANÇ
Without meaningful progress in the solution of the Nagorno Karabakh problem between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the chances for the two protocols to normalize relations between Ankara and Yerevan to pass from the Turkish Parliament are dim. Keeping that note in mind, let's analyze the current state of affairs in the reconciliation process that is under way between Ankara and Yerevan.
First of all compared to the experience of last April, when both countries have announced that they have agreed on a road map to normalize relations, the process was better managed. In April, only a statement was made, and the content of the road map was kept secret, leading to uneasiness in the public. Furthermore, Turkey had kept Azerbaijan in the dark, underestimating its reaction. When it faced Baku's anger, it had to step down, alienating the Armenians this time since it could not keep its promises.
The statement that came on the evening of Aug. 31 that the two countries have agreed on the text of two protocols, one on the establishment of diplomatic relations and the other one on developing bilateral ties aim to put the reconciliation process back on tract. It also aims to avoid disappointment for the second rendezvous of the football diplomacy, on Oct. 14, when the two countries national football teams will meet again.
In contrast to the April experience, this time Turkish foreign ministry has sent the text of the protocols to the members of the press. In other words, the public opinion will have an idea about the content of the protocols that is now open for debate for the next six weeks. This will curb the skepticism in the public.
This time, Azerbaijan was informed beforehand at the highest level. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent the Foreign Ministry's Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioğlu as well as Deputy Undersecretary Unal Cevikoz who is conducting talks with Yerevan to Baku.
Is Baku satisfied by the latest developments? Very unlikely. Azerbaijani authorities most probably have scanned the two texts to see whether there is a linkage between the normalization process and the solution to Nagorno-Karabakh. They have found none, because there is no linkage. The establishment of diplomatic relations and opening of the borders are not tied to any conditions. In other words, Turkey has backed down from its original stance of making normalization conditional to improvement of ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan. At least on paper.
Is it really possible for Turkey to de-link the two issues? It is yet too early to say that. Although there is a time table to sign the protocols and another one on the steps to be taken once the protocols are ratified by the parliaments and the presidencies, there is not a deadline as far as the ratification process is concerned.
Most probably, the protocols will be signed right before the football match that will take place in
It looks like the Turkish side is counting on intense diplomatic efforts to take place to convince Baku and Yerevan to agree on some kind of a deal. If these would prove successful, then the protocols will pass from the Turkish Parliament. Yet this time, the Armenian government might face trouble in its own parliament since if might come under accusations of a 'sell out.”
A formula that will not meet the resistance of the Armenian opposition yet satisfy the Turkish opposition will be hard to find and will require flexibility from Azerbaijan. That why, it will be right to say that Azerbaijan still holds the key to normalization of ties between Armenia and Turkey.
Hurriyet Daily News
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