Below is an interview with Victor Nadein-Raevsky, Senior Research Fellow, PhD, the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RF Academy of Sciences.
Question: Mr. Raevsky, Armenia and Turkey have made a historic attempt of rapprochement, which is supposed to result in the normalization of bilateral relations. How sincere is Turkey in this process? How much is it interested in success?
Answer: Turkey is implementing a multi-pronged policy, which is not so transparent as they would like to show it. On the other hand, it is a multi-pronged blow. It is a blow on the traditional stereotypes of the Turkish state and society. It is a rather complicated process, which has to be “played back” from time to time because of Azerbaijan's position and various approaches displayed by the Turkish Establishment. There is not a complete accord. However, the most important question is: what is the aim of the struggle? First of all, it is Europe” a desire to carve out a niche for negotiations and eventually be admitted to the European Union (EU). Turkey never pushes this priority to the background, which is most important.
In this context, Turkey has found most interesting fields for exerting pressure on Europe. They are making serious attempts to stir up Europe interest in the idea of “energy hub,” with Turkey to play this role, as well as in the possibility of alternative gas mains. Thus Turkey will fill a most important niche in European policy, with every prospect of leaving Ukraine behind.
With all this, Turks do not forget about themselves. A 15% share in the NABUCCO project is a link is official Ankara's “priority chain.” Among them is Turkey's intention to normalize its relations with Armenia, the problem of Cyprus, relations with Greeks, democratization, resolution of the Kurdish problem, as well as the task of political neutrality of the Armed Forces. This is a most serious and comprehensive program, and the Turkish leaders are gradually carrying it out. That is the reason why I do not think Turkey's intention to normalize its relations with Armenia is window-dressing.
Question: What awaits Turkey if the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement fails?
Answer: A failure certainly implies a challenge to the aforementioned comprehensive program. The border will remain closed as well. Incidentally, the Armenian-Turkish border being closed affects Turkey as well.
Armenia's territory might well be used for regional communication and laying of pipelines” relevant plans do exist. From this aspect, Turkey is hardly willing to remain hostage to Azerbaijan's policy. True, despite being “allies and brothers,” Turkish politicians want to have a free hand. It shows! They do not say some things point-blank. Azerbaijan is trying to put obstacles, which is a serious impediment to Turkey.
Question: What is your point of view on Iran's position on the prospective reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border?
Answer: Iran has always had multi-pronged interests in any part of the world. Security issues are an important component of Iran's interests. We all remember the time when the possibility of deploying Israeli air forces in Georgia was being considered. Of course, plans like that have never met Iran's interests. Iran is obviously interested in developing its relations with Armenia. But it is not its decisive interest. At present, Iran is the only transit country south of Armenia. We can expect Armenia's interest in developing ties with Iran to wane if the Armenian-Turkish border is reopened. Armenia may also change its position on Iran's nuclear program, which is not of importance though 'm ajor powerhouses are the key players here.
Nevertheless, Iran is interested in having allies in the South Caucasus. The question is how it is going to “built up” its positions. I think Iran will continue its relations with Armenia. In its turn, Armenia will continue its multi-pronged policy. Moreover, it is becoming obvious. In this context, official Yerevan has numerous issues to settle. It is time for working up a balanced position.
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