Interview with George Friedman, CEO, STRATFOR Global Intelligence Company
Note: Strategic Forecasting, Inc., more commonly known as STRATFOR, is a global intelligence company founded in 1996 in Austin, Texas by well-known political analyst George Friedman. He has best-sellers like The Next 100 Years, America's Secret War, The Future of War: Power, Technology and American World Dominance in the Twenty-First Century. STRATFOR's client list includes Fortune 500 companies and international government agencies. STRATFOR has been quoted by media such as CNN, Bloomberg, the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times and the BBC as an authority on international security issues.
— We are approaching to the time when tough sanctions led by the U.S. can be implemented to reduce gasoline import to Iran. In this case, Azerbaijan with it refinery capacities, can be the option which can reduce the effectiveness of sanctions?
— Obviously, Azerbaijan could severely hamper any sanctions against Iran. But Azerbaijan is a small country surrounded by very large ones, including Russia and Turkey. Azerbaijan cannot afford to alienate two of the three major powers in the region. If Turkey or Russia both refuse to participate in sanctions, as they currently indicate will be their policy, then a three way coalition is formed and I expect Azerbaijan to go along with that. If Russia chooses to join the U.S. in sanctions, then Azerbaijan will have an important decision to make. I expect that given a joint U.S.-Russian position, and Turkish neutrality, Azerbaijan will join in the sanctions. So, Azerbaijan will follow and under the circumstances, it is likely that it will follow the Russian lead.
-What overall circumstances the tension against Iran is going to have for Azerbaijan? What we should fear off?
— The greatest threat is, I think, an alignment between Russia and Iran designed to block American power in the region. If this happens, and I think this is a very likely outcome, Azerbaijan will be trapped between two larger powers, Russia and Iran with the United States far away. Turkey would be a counterweight, but not yet a powerful one. Still, the choices will be participating in the Russian-Iranian bloc or Turkey.
— In this complex situation, what will be the best option for Azerbaijan to get more leverage in Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations with?
— For Azerbaijan, allowing the Turkish-Armenian discussions to mature without parallel Azeri-Turkish discussions would leave it in a weakened position over time. It is essential to deepen relations with Turkey and even more rapidly than with Armenia. Turkey and Russia are the great regional powers and Azerbaijan must have a more active policy particularly toward Turkey. That is Azerbaijan's greatest leverage.
— “The Next Hundred Years” is best selling book now. It has a lot of amazing thoughts and concepts particularly about future of Turkey and Mexico. You also predict that in not so distant future Russia and Turkey engage in a war. What will be the implication of the war for countries like Azerbaijan?
— I said in the book that there will be a minor cold war as Russia becomes a regional power. I doubt that this will culminate in general war, but expect complex and dangerous diplomatic events around Russia's periphery. One of the fronts would be the Caucasus, where we have already seen Russian activity. The Turks have serious interests in the Caucasus and while they are trying to accommodate the Russians, their actions with Armenia and Russian actions in Georgia will inevitably create competition between Turkey and Russia. As the Russian economy declines and the Turkish economy rises, so will their power. As Russia weakens once again, Turkey will become a major regional power.
— Where do you see Azerbaijan next 100 years from now? What is our place in this global competitive world and what we need to do to survive?
— Historically, Azerbaijan has been part of other empires. The period since 1991 has been unique. It is possible that for the next 20 or 30 years it will remain independent within the framework of Russian-Turkish competition. Its best solution would be a coalition with Caucasian states like Armenia and Georgia to create an independent framework for all of these countries, but the issues between these three countries prevents such an event. Therefore, over time, as Turkish power rises, Azerbaijan will fall under Turkish influence. This does not mean it will lose its independence, but it will have to coordinate its policies carefully with the regional power.
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