The opposition in Armenia, aided by the Armenian diaspora around the world, is intensifying its efforts to stymie the normalization of ties between Ankara and Yerevan, as the day nears for the signing of the protocol that will enable the establishment of diplomatic ties.
That day, according to news reports, is Oct. 10, and the signing will take place in Switzerland between the foreign ministers of the two countries.
The argument of the Armenian opposition is that the two protocols “which provide a road map for the normalization of ties - amount to a “sellout to the Turks.” They maintain that this sellout involves both Nagorno-Karabakh, and the genocide issue. The opposition on the Turkish side is doing much the same and arguing the same, except that it is talking about a “betrayal of Azerbaijan by the Erdogan government.“One can safely bet that in the Turkish case the problem has as much to do with domestic politics as it has to do with anything else.
In short, feelings on both sides among the “naysayers” are so intense that there is no indication that the two protocols will in fact move forward once they have been signed. According the road map worked out by the two governments a signature is not enough. The protocols have to also be ratified by both parliaments.
If the two protocols do not mover forward then it is clear that both sides will lose, since a unique opportunity for some kind of reconciliation between these two estranged nations will have been squandered. But if we put the losses on a scale to see who comes out worse as a result of this reconciliation process being scuttled, the answer does not require much mulling.
While the Armenian opposition and the Diaspora “including Turkish rejectionists” — will have won in that event, it is clear that the looser will be Armenia, whose isolation is already a serious obstacle to its development, as has been highly apparent over these past 15 years. It is also questionable if the opposition and Diaspora will have scored any significant points against Turkey, if by that we mean points that can be translated into political advantage in order to browbeat Ankara into a certain position concerning the events of 1915.
The past four decades should have shown that is not possible. It is true that more people around the world today are aware of the events of 1915, many agreeing that what transpired was indeed genocide. Very few people who know the subject well maintain, however, that any legal retroactivity can be activated over this issue given all that has transpired in the world since then.
The position we face is a simple one. If legal retroactivity is available for this issue, then what does this mean for the countless other such incidents that have taken place over the past century and a half, and for which nothing can be sought today.
While Germany has paid compensation for Nazi crimes, that was a specific case with the Nuremberg trials of Nazi leaders in the background. But if the Armenians insist on using the German example, they should be looking, not at the Nazi case, but at what many refer to as the “Herero and Namaqua Genocide,” which is said to have occurred in German South-West Africa between 1904 and 1907.
In 1985, the United Nations“Whitaker Report recognized Germany's attempt to exterminate the Herero and Nama people “as one of the earliest attempts at genocide in the 20th century.” This fact alone cannot be too pleasing for the Armenians who claim that 1915 saw the first genocide of the 20th century.
The German government apologized for the events in 2004, but also made it be known that there was no legal retroactivity that could make it pay compensation to the families of those affected.
The New York-based International Center for Transitional Justice, or ICTJ, also concluded a few years back that while the events of 1915 could be termed a “genocide” under the 1949 Genocide Convention, there was no recourse to retroactivity in this case given the time that the events in question occurred.
Call those events “genocide” (as Armenians insist) or “the natural result of civil war where both sides incurred losses” (as Turks insist), the fact is that they belong to the historic domain today, rather than the legal one. In the meantime what legal dimension may have developed on a national level around the world is also being whittled down due to the situation that prevails today.
The latest example of this, for those who have not heard, is the recent ruling by the 9th U. S. Circuit Court of Appeals in the United States, which tossed out a California law that had opened the door to several multimillion-dollar settlements for Armenians, following cases brought against life insurance companies based on the events of 1915.
What is crucial here is that the California law was annulled on the basis of “unconstitutionality.” For those who may be interested, there are plenty of details on the Internet about this development, which represents a serious blow for the anti-Turkish Armenian lobby in the United States.
If we leave the legal dimension aside and look at the political dimension, it is clear that the Armenian diaspora has created serious headaches for Turkey over these past four decades. One also must not forget the scores of innocent Turkish diplomats, members of their families and other innocent Turkish officials who were killed by the terrorists that this diaspora produced.
All of this has enabled the genocide issue to come to the attention of the international community, which is of course a plus from an Armenian perspective. But the diaspora and Armenia, after it gained independence, have not been successful in forcing Turkey to accept a certain position, let alone pay any compensation.
Neither has this campaign enabled Armenia to break out of its isolation. In fact, Yerevan has missed out on almost every strategic investment opportunity in the Caucasus, and has therefore failed to increase the welfare of its people.
In the meantime, the diaspora and its supporters have totally failed to prevent key projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline, or the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line “which bypass Armenia” from going through.
If the ratification of the protocols mentioned here is prevented by the Armenian opposition and the diaspora, this general situation for Turkey will not change, despite continuing headaches that the Armenian side may cause it.
As to what real benefits the prevention of this reconciliation effort will bring Armenia, it is clear that there are hardly any that can be mentioned. If there are any “that belong to the real world, of course, and not an imaginary one” then we would personally like to hear of these.
Semih Idiz / Hurriyet Daily News
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