At the end of September the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University hosted a
As stated, the goal of the symposium was to reassess the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the aftermath of the war in Georgia and to explore a number of external and internal factors which could influence any future solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The process of Armenian-Turkish rapprochement, intensified this year, has been placed among one of the external factors in this context. Starting from “soccer diplomacy” in September 2008, this process ended up with the signing of the two protocols on the establishment of diplomatic relations and on the development of bilateral relations between Armenia and Turkey signed last Saturday, Oct. 10, in Zurich.
By its nature, this is remarkable momentum in the history of both nations. If ratified by the respective parliaments of both countries, the accord could significantly change the geopolitical situation and existing balance of power in the region. It will strengthen Turkey's position as a regional power and be one of the tangible results of Turkey's proactive diplomacy targeting to achieve “zero problems” with neighboring countries.
At the same time, it is well known that the main reason for the closure of the Turkish-Armenian border was the occupation of Kelbajar, one of seven adjacent districts of Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region, by Armenia in 1993. Therefore, these two processes — the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border — are somehow interconnected and should move forward in parallel.
Therefore, it is no coincidence that the signing ceremony of the two protocols was attended by the heads of the ministries of foreign affairs of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group's
Although providing a framework for further normalization of bilateral relations between Armenia and Turkey, these two protocols, according to the opinion of an Armenian participants in the Fletcher Symposium, are not enough to reconcile these two nations. Further reconciliation efforts should be undertaken through public events and historians from both sides as well as with the involvement of the Armenian diaspora.
The role of the diaspora in this particular issue is most serious and related to the alleged genocide controversy. This past bloody experience between Armenians and Turks is the main barrier to the revitalization of their relations. The historical memory of this event probably marks a psychological trauma in certain parts of the diaspora, which is not ready to put aside a 're vanchist policy.” Azerbaijanis have been punished as a result of “guilt by association” because Armenians usually often do not differentiate between Turks and Azerbaijanis.
That is why both the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, including the opening of the border and the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, are meeting strong resistance on behalf of the Armenian diaspora and nationalist segments of the region's societies. It is precisely this fact that explains the some reservations from the Azerbaijani side, which is based on uneasiness that after some tangible results to be achieved through the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement Armenia will feel no more pressure to negotiate over Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Azerbaijani side's apprehension was stated again by President Ilham Aliyev in his interview broadcasted by National Television on Oct. 8. The president noted: “At times, there are opinions that the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations and the opening of the border in the future can promote the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. I do not share these opinions as I consider that if Turkish-Armenian relations are normalized before the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, then the position of Armenia in the negotiating process can become tougher. Armenia will try to present it as a political and diplomatic success and, most likely, will bring to negotiations an even more rigid and unacceptable position.” High-ranking Turkish officials promised to provide support to the process of achieving a breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. They also say that without some progress in this conflict settlement, the Armenian-Turkish border will not be opened.
Thus, Turkey and Armenia are now in a new stage of revival of diplomatic relations if both parliaments ratify the two protocols. However, how beneficial this will be for the establishment of peace and stability in the entire region depends on future steps on the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
* Gulshan Pashayeva is an analyst Center for Strategic Studies in Baku, Azerbaijan
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