Creating peace and stability in the South Caucasus has been an elusive project, but a major breakthrough was achieved between Turkey and Armenia on Oct. 10.
The foreign ministers of the two countries met in Switzerland, and in the presence of the U.S. secretary of state and other European foreign ministers, signed an agreement to open their border and restore diplomatic relations. The deal still has to be approved by the parliaments of both countries, but the act of signing the protocols has sent shockwaves through the region.
The decision-makers in Baku, for one, have taken note of it. Azerbaijan is the most energy-rich country in the South Caucasus. Armenian troops, however, occupy more than 20 percent of the country's territory” the result of the
Supported by the U.S. and Turkey and focused on the energy developments on its territory, Baku has preferred a diplomatic solution to a military one. But the new Turkish-Armenian agreement has turned the tables and now Azerbaijan finds itself under pressure. Any military solution would clearly be a disaster for regional peace and stability, but, feeling isolated, Baku may go for the jackpot. International law is on Azerbaijan's side” the principle of territorial integrity guarantees state sovereignty - so the pretext for going to war exists.
Having secured an opening with Turkey, thanks to the help of the international community, it is now Yerevan's turn to push for peace and begin a
By pulling its troops out of Azerbaijan, Armenia could finally integrate itself into the South Caucasus infrastructure projects aimed at connecting Europe to Central Asia through major energy, transport and telecommunication lines. Yerevan should see an inherent interest in being an equal partner in the east-west corridor and not just a crossing point for trade moving between Turkey and Russia.
If Yerevan agrees to withdraw its troops, Europe should agree to take on the security and administrative oversight of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, supplemented by Russian and U.S. assistance. The area could also receive European financial aid in addition to European
Having restored its relations with Armenia, Turkey is now the ideal third-party mediator to move the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process forward. This should be done in parallel to the already existing Minsk Process, a format that keeps the U.S., Russia and Europe engaged directly in shaping the security parameters of the South Caucasus. This means the Ankara initiative should have a narrow focus with a clear goal in mind: the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijan as a precondition for peace.
* Borut Grgic is the founder of the Institute for Strategic Studies in Brussels.
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