HistoryofTruth.com - Armenian Allegations

Interview with Alexander Rahr, Program Director (Russia / Eurasia), The German Council on Foreign Relations.

Q: Is the soonest settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh possible?

A: I do not think that the solution to this conflict will happen soon. The main problem lies in the unwillingness of the superpowers to settle the conflict. I do not see any country declaring the conflict resolution a top priority for them. Each of them considers other problems to be a priority.

Q: But it’s no secret that the Karabakh problem is already being discussed at the highest level. For the first time this year the G-8 leaders adopted a special statement on Nagorno Karabakh, the issue was discussed at the meetings of not only the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan during their visits abroad, but also between the leaders of Turkey, Russia and the United States. Does it mean that the statements of leaders of foreign states about their extreme interest in the conflict settlement are insincere?

A: I think, in fact, this issue is not so important for superpowers. The status quo is suitable for most countries. No solution to the problem is seen. There are solutions offered by Azerbaijan, there is a solution, which is suitable for Armenia. And we all know that Armenia has its supporters in the West, like Azerbaijan has them in the West, Asia and Turkey.

Q: A lot of developments have lately been observed around Karabakh that affects the solution of the conflict either directly or indirectly. Is there any among them that can prevent the escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

A: Indeed, there are such events and new developments that really affect the current situation. One of them is last year’s war in Georgia, which scared most people, especially in the West. The war showed that the so-called “frozen” conflicts can be easily escalated and led to military action anytime. The fear of the European Union about what they saw in Georgia is obvious. This is a real feeling, therefore, there is some interest in studying possibilities of solving the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh once again.

Q:And how do processes around the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation affect Karabakh?

A: The processes of opening the Turkish-Armenian border are the second factors influencing Karabakh conflict, and it is also directly connected with EU's Eastern Partnership policy, aimed at the Western CIS and South Caucasus countries.

Q: Do you believe the border between Turkey and Armenia will open?

A: This issue is unclear and it is unknown whether it will happen at all, because there are so many questions. In any case, this is an achievement of European policy, which aims to persuade Turkey to play a stabilizing role between the EU and the Caucasus.

I would call energy policy another factor influencing the Karabakh settlement. The Nabucco gas pipeline is likely to be built though few believed in it a couple of months ago. It is necessary to create conditions for this purpose. Nabucco is now said to be likely built not from Central Asia but from Iraq. That is, the pipeline will pump an Iraqi or later Iranian gas via Azerbaijan and Turkey and to the West. In this case, the problem of “frozen conflicts” in this region, including Kurdish, Nagorno Karabakh and Abkhazian and South Osetian conflicts will again become important for the countries that are willing to ensure energy security of Europe in the coming 20—30 years.

As for the beginning of our conversation, I agree that the Karabakh problem is perceived, and discussed, but frankly speaking I do not believe in the prospects of its early settlement. I know that this issue is somehow mentioned at the diplomatic level or even by G-8. But the fact is that this conflict has not been settled yet.

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