Interview withAlexey Vlasov, director of Moscow State University’s analytical centre on post-Soviet states.
Q: During his visit to Washington next week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to discuss
A: According to leaks in the Turkish media, Erdogan's visit might be productive for Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Let's wait for the meeting between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan. If any specific agreements are reached, Erdogan has a good chance of going down in history as “a successful negotiator.” I am cautiously optimistic both about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement and the Armenian-Turkish protocols.
Q: Do you think Turkey is not entirely independent on the issue of opening the border with Armenia and is being pushed by the United States and EU?
A: This is partially true. The pressure from the United States is very serious, but as I have already said in a previous interview, the Americans are too direct. Without other arbiters and mediators they will find it difficult to bring together the interests of all regional players. They will have to negotiate in an expanded format. So Washington's pressure is also limited. Moreover, Ankara's interests do not fully coincide with those of the West.
Q: Will the Armenian-Turkish protocols be ratified?
A: There are two possibilities. The first one is that the process of ratification of the protocols will proceed in line with progress on Nagorno-Karabakh. In this case, ratification will be considered one of the first achievements in negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. The second possibility is that the topics will be scheduled. The likeliest date in this case is spring 2010. But I would like to note that more accelerated scenarios are possible.
Q: How would you assess Turkey’s diplomacy in the South Caucasus in the past year?
A: A great game is under way and Turkey is successfully overcoming possible risks. If everything goes well, Turkey's diplomacy will work in the region's favour. But it should be taken into account that any accident may hamper the peacekeeping efforts. Therefore, I think it is too early to draw conclusions. Let's wait until January 2010.
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