HistoryofTruth.com - Armenian Allegations

News.Az interviews Yevgeny Minchenko, director of the Russia-based International Institute for Political Expertise.

Q: Before meeting the Armenian president in Munich, Ilham Aliyev said that if the negotiations fail, Azerbaijan will initiate war to liberate the occupied lands. Do you think a military scenario to settle the Karabakh conflict is realistic?

A: I think this scenario is likely, at least 70% likely.

Q: Do you think the superpowers with their interests will allow Baku to start war in Nagorno-Karabakh? Might the Russian military base in Armenia get involved in the conflict, possibly under the regulation of the Collective Security Treaty?

A: There are several points of risk for foreign states including the security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the threat of ecological disaster if the nuclear power station in Armenia is damaged and lesser risks associated with the possible failure of the Mingachevir hydroelectric power station. Some of the superpowers (in particular, separate elite groups in the United States) may view a protracted military conflict as a pressure factor on the wider Middle East, on the one hand, and on Russia and the Russia-Old European countries unit ,on the other. As for the involvement of the Russian military base in Armenia in the conflict, I think this is more likely if it is attacked. As for the question of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and its possible involvement in the conflict, I don’t know.

Q: Analysts say that Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Moscow following the Munich meeting is related to the Karabakh conflict. What interests does Moscow pursue in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict?

A: Naturally, the Kremlin is interested in the settlement of the conflict. The Kremlin is also interested in preserving good relations both with Azerbaijan and Armenia. I think there is no quick fix to achieve both aims.

Q: Tensions over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are growing. What influence will Russia have on the Karabakh conflict? Will Moscow be able to push Yerevan to compromise, because even today most analysts still believe that the key to the settlement of the conflict lies in the Kremlin?

A: I think it’s a great delusion to think that the key to the conflict settlement lies in the Kremlin. Russia was unlucky in being so big and involved in a great many of its neighbours’ conflicts and even in remote countries by the very fact of its existence. Russia’s influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan is quite limited, like its influence on Iran or North Korea.

Q: The United States and the West have pressured Turkey to normalize relations with Armenia. If the Armenian-Turkish border is opened, the US will try to use Ankara to pull Yerevan out of Moscow’s influence. Russia will lose Yerevan like it lost Georgia. In turn, Azerbaijan is building its partner relations both with Russia and the United States. Don’t you think that Moscow would benefit from trying to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to keep Azerbaijan and Yerevan in its sphere of influence?

A: Russia plays a more complex game in the region. It is not limited to Karabakh. See how relations between Russia and Turkey are changing today. I think an attempt to settle the Karabakh conflict by way of force would be perceived extremely negatively in Moscow.