Turkey will ask the United States to push Armenia to withdraw from Karabakh duringa meeting between the U.S. and Turkish leaders, international relations experts told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoðan and U.S. President Barack Obama will meet Monday in Washington, D.C.
The experts were asked about Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Turkey-Armenia relations. Most of them emphasized that Turkey would ask the United States to push Armenia on the Karabakh issue, while other said ratifyingprotocols is also a critical matter. SABRÝ SAYARI — Professor, Sabancý University
Afghanistan: “It is clear that both the government and the parliament are against Turkey sending combat troops, but contributions to other fields might be possible,” said Sayarý, recalling that the National Security Council, or MGK, had decided not to send combat troops to Afghanistan. But it is difficult to estimate the content of Turkey’s contributions to other fields, Sayarý said, adding, “It can be logistical help.”
Iraq: The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq will be an issue, Sayarý said: “It is understood that the U.S. will pull out its forces through next August, and a significant part of this withdrawal would be over Turkey. This is a serious issue for the United States. [Erdoðan] might give messages of support.” Kirkuk was another possible topic of discussion, according to Sayarý.
Iran: “This is the most sensitive issue because the views of the two countries are not in harmony. Turkey would say it would help [the U.S.] if it negotiates with Iran rather than using military means, and the U.S. would not approve of that.” Armenia-Turkey relations: “Turkey would say that we agreed on protocols, but for its approval in the Turkish Parliament, an improvement in Karabakh is needed. The U.S. would say they would work on it, but Turkey would need the protocol to be approved in Parliament.”
ÝLTER TURAN — Professor, Bilgi University
Afghanistan: “Turkey already made significant contributions to the NATO mission in Afghanistan. Maybe an increase in the number of
Iran: “Turkey has made it clear that it is against military interventions and sanctions that it considers to be ineffective. Nevertheless, the prime minister will probably have to concede that Turkey will abide by the decisions of the U.N. Security Council concerning Iran.”
Iraq: “The effective cooperation against the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] should be continued and advanced further. The status of Kirkuk as part of Iraq should be maintained. Turkey would continue to cooperate with the U.S. and do its best to contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability and the enhancement of Iraq’s economic prosperity.”
Armenia-Turkey relations: “Turkey wants to continue its opening policy. The continuation of this policy is contingent on Armenia’s initial withdrawal from Azerbaijani territories, which it has invaded. U.S. support is needed to persuade Armenia to agree on a plan to withdraw from occupied regions.” SEMIH ÝDÝZ — Columnist, Milliyet Afghanistan: “Turkey is ready for a contribution to Afghanistan but will not send combat troops there. Turkey wants to have a role in training and passive security duties. It cannot come out of this format; there is a Security Council decision and also other statements.”
Iran: Turkey will be slightly passive about Iran, although it will say the doors of dialogue should not be closed, according to Ýdiz, who said Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has raised the bar so high that there is nothing left to discuss. “The prime minister might receive demands [from the U.S] to convince Iran. I do not think that Erdoðan will be able to have a proactive approach about Iran,” Ýdiz said. “Ahmadinejad did not help his friend [Erdoðan] that much on this issue.”
Iraq: “The message saying, ‘We should continue working together. Iraq’s territorial integrity and stability is important,’ will be given to the U.S.”
Turkey-Armenia relations: “Erdoðan is going to say that Turkey is serious and the government is determined [about the Armenian opening.] He declared this to the public a couple of times as well. He is also going to say that an improvement on the Karabakh issue will have a positive impact [on Turkey] and accelerate the process.”
MEHMET YEGÝN — Expert, International Strategic Research Organization Afghanistan: “Turkey is going to insist on not sending combat troops to Afghanistan,” Yegin said. As a country trying to increase its soft power in the region and do business in the region by hiding its military aspect, he added, sending combat troops would be a serious departure from Turkey’s policy. Iraq: Turkey’s cooperation on Iraq will increase, according to Yegin, as its reservations about the PKK are eliminated. “Especially about northern Iraq, Turkey was standing back even about naming [that region], but now Turkey has close relations and contact on diplomatic grounds. Opening a consulate in the northern Iraqi capital is being debated,” he said.
Iran: “Turkey has close relations with Iran, and after this it is difficult to move with the United States. An intermediary role for Turkey? Both sides and especially Iran had not accepted this. So an intermediary role again for Turkey for now, I do not know. What is for Turkey’s benefit is to reduce the tension between Iran and the U.S. and to prevent any harm for itself in case of a possible conflict.”
Turkey-Armenia relations: “Erdoðan should give a message to the U.S. to push Armenia to withdraw from Karabakh. If this is done, peace will come. If not, all of the improvements will stop.”
JAMES H. HOLMES — President, American-Turkish Council
Afghanistan/Pakistan: “Turkey has a lot ofexperience in the region and is already making numerous valuable contributions, but the needs are huge.If Turkey would accept alarger responsibility for the security training objectives, that would be a hugeassist to the president and his plan, and an acceptable alternative to the priority preference of combat forces.”
Iraq:"Here, too, Turkey has made substantial contributions through its diplomatic, training and economic efforts in both Baghdad and Arbil.Truly a remarkable turn-around in Turkey-Iraq diplomacy and relations in the past 18 months.The U.S.needs toreaffirm to Turkey that as itdraws down its forces in Iraq, it remains sensitive to the premier requirement of leaving behind a unitary Iraq."
Iran:"The U.S. believes Turkey when it says that it isno lessconcerned about a nuclear Tehran, and that Ankara speaks very directly and candidly with Tehran about those concerns.But the optics of this have been all wrongfrom Washington’s perspective.Washington probably does notobject to Ankara developing good relations with Tehran, and likely even sees some advantages to it.But the PR proportions have been wrong: Ankara cannot put its arm around Ahmadinejad and say he is the victim of nuclear gossip when all the world knows [from theIAEA report] that he’s thumbing his nose at the U.N. and the enormous efforts being made by others to resolve the matter diplomatically." Turkey-Armenia relations:"Find some way to keep making progress on theprotocols.The U.S. also doesn’t want to lose Azerbaijan in the process and will accelerate its efforts in the Minsk process. It will require some political courage, but Washington is convinced thatdiplomatic normalization can lead to speedy progress on [Nagorno-Karabakh] issues.Step-by-step, because the ‘big bang’ solution would not work." Steve Larrabee — Senior Political Scientist, Rand Corporation
Iran: “Obama will try to persuade Erdoðan of the need for tougher sanctions against Iran if Tehran continues to reject the offer to ship its nuclear fuel for processing outside Iran and comply with IAEA regulations,” Larrabee said, adding that this is the most critical issue between the two countries. He said a refusal by Erdoðan to support tougher sanctions against Tehran on such an important international security issue could seriously damage Turkey’s relations with the U.S. and European allies.
Afghanistan: “Obama will try to persuade Erdoðan to increase Turkey’s commitment in Afghanistan, but knowing Turkey’s reluctance to send more combat troops, he will probably settle for an increase of other forms of
Iraq: “Obama would express support for Turkey’s recent efforts to improve relations with the Kurdish regional government as well as the domestic ‘Kurdish opening,’ encouraging Erdoðan to continue both,” Larrabee said, adding that Obama would also encourage Turkey to increase its cooperation with the new Iraqi government. According to Larrabee, Obama will reiterate his commitment to withdraw the bulk of U.S. forces from Iraq by 2011 but leave open the possibility of maintaining a small residual force to train Iraqi military and police forces if the Iraqi government wants such a U.S. force to stay.
Turkey-Armenia relations: Obama will express strong support for Turkey’s effort to improve relations with Armenia, Larrabee said. At the same time, he added, the U.S. president will emphasize the importance of closely coordinating future steps with Baku in order to avoid a serious deterioration of relations with Azerbaijan.
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