One should accept that Turkish-Armenian rapprochement process has paralysed. There are reports that Yerevan administration plans to withdraw from the protocols. It is certain that such a move would be the last blow on Turkey-Armenia process.
On the other hand, it would bring a few risks with itself. Because Ankara would use the development against Armenia and would stress that Turkish-Armenian peace process is terminated by Sarksyan administration.
But of cource, this process has another leg in Washington. In Washington, the withdrawal of Armenia from protocols would be evaluated as Ankara’s fault. The reason is simple. Washington thinks that Turkey has put the process into a difficult situation by establishing connection between resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh problem and ratification of protocols. In this aspect, Washington and Yerevan looks to the process from the same window: Karabakh was not a precondition during the negotiations in Zurich, in October. This precondition is set by Ankara because of political reasons. The last statement on this issue was made by Erdogan in Washington. Erdogan clearly stated that protocols will not take effect unless there is not significant progress in the process of resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Turkish government will not make a step unless it makes sure that Azerbaijan is satisfied with the solution in Karabakh. And Washington understands the situation in Turkey.
And what about the situation in Yerevan? We mentioned that Sarksyan may withdraw from protocols. But, as Ankara does, Sarksyan drags his feet too. Armenian government has not introduced protocols to the Armenian parliament. According to Armenian constitutional law, the agreement should be analysed whether it is appropriate to Armenian constitutional system or not. Armenian Constitutional Court has not made its decision yet. Protocols will be introduced to Armenian parliament after the decision of Constitutional Court. Although Armenian officials states that analyse of protocols by the court is a technical process, it is well known that Sarksyan could have introduced protocols to the Armenian parliament directly.
The reason for Armenian administration to drag feet, is obvious: they expect Turkey to make the first steps.
In these circumstances, while the process isin deadlockboth in Ankara and Yerevan, there are two alternatives remaining. Armenia and Azerbaijanwill achieve progress in Nagorno-Karabakh talks or protocols will be abandoned. It is naive to expect a miracle to happen in Karabakh. OSCE Minks Group, which is established to mediate between Azerbaijan and Armenia, struggles to solve the problem since years. On the other hand, because Armenia is against connecting Nagorno-Karabakh resolution process to the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, the most probable option is solutionlessness.
These circumstances calls for a political move from Washington. Obama administration needs to make a creative diplomatic move to accelerate Turkey-Armenia process to prevent Turkish-American relations suffer. In my opinion, Armenia and Ankara administrations may introduce just one of the protocols at the same time. Afterwards, second protocol, probably the text which proposes establishment of diplomatic relations between two countries, could be left for a future date to be handled again related to the progress in Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
