Interview with Georges Berghezan, researcher at GRIP (Group for Research and Information on Peace and Security), Bruxelles.
Q: Do you think that EU sincerely interested in the settlement of conflicts in the Sought Caucasus?
A: EU is interested in the settlement of conflicts in South Caucasus, at least as long as it serves its own interests. Open conflicts in this area can have negative consequences on EU’s relations with important countries like Russia and Turkey and on the oil and gas markets. They could undermine the area’s geostrategic importance and foster instability and development of anti-Western groups or ideologies.
Q: There is an opinion that the only interest of Europe in stability in the region is Azeri oil. How would you comment on that?
A: As explained above, there are other interests that should be taken into account. Western transnational firms and governments have invested a lot in pipelines to exploit gas and oil reserves belonging to Azerbaijan, but also possibly to Turkmenistan or other ex-Soviet republic, as a way to diversify its sources of deliveries and reduce its dependency on Russia, especially regarding natural gas.
Q: Was any influence of August war in Georgia on Karabagh conflict?
A: The Georgia war and Russian recognition of two separatist entities in that country came after Western major countries recognized Kosovo’s independence. So, more than ever, big powers decide of drawing and redrawing borders, while international law is left on the margins. This leaves the world more unstable and prone to violent conflicts, though the new U.S. administration seems to be eager to avoid bellicose adventures. Regarding the Karabakh conflict, a peaceful resolution is thus not easier after the Georgia war, though the process of relations’ normalization between Turkey and Armenia should be considered as a slight glimpse of hope, as well as the warming of ties between Moscow and Washington.
Q: Don’t you think that the West is quite passive in the settlement of conflicts in the Sought Caucasus?
A: Regarding the Karabakh conflict, the West is trying to refrain Armenia to recognize the independence of the separatist territory, while calling Azerbaijan to abstain from any military action. But its action is mostly rhetorical. The international community’s wish for a peaceful resolution of the conflict could be better highlighted by a mutually agreed deployment of international observers, or even of a peacekeeping force.
Q: Does the Europe accept the republics of the Sought Caucasus as its part and its conflicts as own ones or like something distant?
A: The 3 States forming South Caucasus are far away from leading EU countries. Though political, economical and cultural links with Europe exist and are in full development, South Caucasus States should first strengthen their bilateral relations and try to solve the territorial conflicts concerning them. The future of South Caucasus should probably be seen as a bridge between Russia, the Middle East (Turkey, but also Iran) and Europe.
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