According to the report of News.am, Deputy Director General of the Strategic Culture Foundation (Russia), Andrei Arashev said that last year did not bring closer the solution to any of the South Caucasian conflicts — the Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazian or Ossetian ones. He said that last year did not see any breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, and “it is unlikely in 2010 either.”
As to the possibility of a new military conflict or the resumption of old ones, Areshev does not rule it out. On the other hand, he said that much depends on the conflicting parties. If they properly realize the actual estate of affairs and the fact that any changes of the status are possible only with reliable international guarantees provided, the situation will remain unchanged. Nagorno-Karabakh’s status will mainly be negotiated in 2010, Areshev said. “The negotiations may last as long as possible, which may cause discontent with the process or results. But any negotiations are better than no negotiations or resumptions of conflicts,” the expert said.
As regards the Armenia-Turkey reconciliation process, which, Areshev said, was the most significant event in 2009 and caused Armenians to experience ambivalent feelings, but the situation required concrete steps. “Unfortunately, there are the third parties, Azerbaijan and the United States, which, according to some information, proposed this initiative,” he said.
Arashev said that Turkey-Armenia process will reach a stalemate if Turkey does not change its attitude on connecting resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh problem to the reconciliation process.
